{ Got ahead of myself and originally published this as the Semis. Whoops. }
How We Did
Not bad. Not great, but not bad. Evidently, I don’t respect Scandinavia as much as I should, as both Norway and Sweden surprised. The rest went pretty much as expected, although I only got a single game exactly right in the scoreline (Italy over China, 2-0). I did have France over Brazil 2-1, but not in extra time.
So, not bad. It gets tougher from here on out.
NORWAY – ENGLAND
Norway was stronger defensively than I thought they would be, and England is always capable of a toothless offensive performance. But I think England is just too deep up front right now, and I expect them to find some space in the attacking third.
The play of Fran Kirby and Keira Walsh (assuming the lineup stays static) will be key: how England moves through the middle of the park and how they shield their back line are likely to determine the game. The former will dictate whether Lucy Bronze and Nikita Parris can be sprung into space down the right side and will impact how deep Ellen White has to come for the ball (White staying in the attacking third is good for England). The latter will be key to negating Norway’s counter-attacks and, more importantly, whether England can do anything to slow Caroline Graham Hansen.
That’s key, as Graham Hansen will be the best player on the field, always capable of turning the game herself.
England 2-1.
FRANCE – USA
As much hype as this game will get, it can probably not be overdone. This matchup would be, in my opinion, a worthy final game, and the winner has to be the favorite to lift the trophy at the end.
I would watch 3 things in this game:
- The flanks. Megan Rapinoe and Tobin Heath have been fantastic, but Spain was largely able to limit their influence, partially by pinning them a bit further upfield and making them carry a larger defensive load. Look for France to attempt the same, especially through Kadidiatou Diani and Delphine Cascarino off the bench. The fullbacks for the USA–Kelley O’Hara and Crystal Dunn–both have the pace to keep up with the French attackers (a situation with which they are largely unfamiliar), but both also are used to rampaging upfield as part of the attack, something that will carry far more risk in this game.
- Alyssa Naeher. Naeher is quite good, but this is the 1st time in decades the USA has not has a truly world-class GK between the sticks. Amadine Henry and Eugénie Le Sommer love to hit the ball from distance, and either could cause Naeher some problems.
- Julie Ertz. There isn’t a better DM in the women’s game, especially when you consider Ertz’ ability to score off set pieces. Ertz’ ability to provide cover defensively is absolutely critical. The more you see her pulled to the side to help defend Amel Majri on an overlapping run or Diani or Viviane Asseyi, the more problematic life will be for the USA. However, if Ertz is able to stay in the middle of the field, the triangle of her, Becky Sauerbrunn, and Abby Dahlkemper could be very hard for the French to solve.
I dunno. I just wanna’ fanboy this one. 1-1, France on PKs.
ITALY – NETHERLANDS
I’ve enjoyed Italy, too, but it ends here.
Sari Van Veenendaal isn’t mentioned often in the discussion of the best GK’s in the world, but that performance against Japan may change that. That said, if Italy is to have a chance, it’s going to be in play similar to what preceded Yui Hasegawa‘s goal for Japan: quick movement, a moment of miscommunication, and a player through in space against Van Veenendaal.
The Dutch ducked a bullet against Japan, but Lieke Martens and Vivianne Miedema have yet to click in the same game. I think they do here, we get to see a couple Miedema somersaults, and Italy is left in the wake.
Netherlands, 3-0.
GERMANY – SWEDEN
Could Sweden do it again? Sure! But it’s not likely. Germany had their best performance of the tournament against Nigeria, and I think they roll on.
Still, I didn’t think the Swedish CB combo of Nilla Fischer and Linda Sembrant could contain Canada’s attack, but they and especially Hanna Glas on the right flank, did quite well.
I will stick with the same binary from Sweden’s prior match: this is either an easy game for Germany, or it is an absolute nail-biter, destined to be determined by a single kick or PKs. I’ll root for the latter, but if I had to pick, I’d go with Germany, 3-0.