{ I’m writing this immediately after the Germany-Nigeria game–travel and work got in the way of getting it done before that. }
Nothing too surprising coming out of the groups–sure, exactly how Scotland/ Argentina/ Nigeria/ Chile/ China would end up was a jumble, but there was always going to be some churn in the final slots.
OVERALL NOTES
More and more, this seems to be a World Cup of transition. That makes the media information especially misleading: traditionally strong teams (China, Japan, Brazil, Sweden) just aren’t all that great right now, but you’ll hear them talked about as if they are.
It’s simply lazy, but, sadly, it’s to be expected.
There is also some transition at the top: Canada and Australia especially can make an argument to be included in the elite teams.
GERMANY – NIGERA
Already played, so no prediction, and more analysis than on the other games.
This Nigeria team was a disappointment for me–not in losing to Germany, which was clearly expected, but in their overall performance. It was nice to Rasheedat Ajibade get a few minutes, and I would think we will hear from her at the 2023 version of this extravaganza.
I don’t know what to make of Germany right now. In Sara Däbritz, Lina Magull, and Melanie Leupolz there is a great young trio of talent, and Giulia Gwinn seems (surprisingly to me) to have totally adapted to a fullback/wingback type role. In doing so, she’s keeping one of the most impressive attacking fullbacks in 2015, Leonie Maier, on the bench. Add in the possible return of Dzsenifer Marozsán and the overrated-but-still-quite-good Alexandra Popp, and this team is loaded. But, but, but … I just remain unconvinced.
There are 2 narratives competing here: one is they did just enough to win against China and Spain and are now rounding into form; the other is that they were pushed to the limit against the better teams they have played, making the wins against South Africa and Nigeria less impressive.
Their next game–against Sweden or Canada–should be excellent.
NORWAY – AUSTRALIA
I think this is potentially the best game of the Round of 16, and I think there will be goals. Neither team has impressed terribly on defense, and each has a world class attacker in Norway’s Caroline Graham Hansen and Australia’s Sam Kerr.
I do think that, in the end, Norway misses Ada Hegerberg, so I’ll go with Australia, 3-2, with Kerr taking over the Golden Boot race from Alex Morgan.
ENGLAND – CAMEROON
They aren’t called indomitable for nothing … that said, Cameroon has been less impressive this time around. They’ve done just enough, and in Ajara Nchout Njoya seem to have found a capable complement to Gabrielle Onguéné and Gaëlle Enganamouit (who has yet to really make her mark here in 2019).
I still think Raissa Feudjio is a great talent, although she seems to be being called upon to play more of a wide role, which I don’t think is her strength.
All that said, this England squad is loaded, and should get through Cameroon’s somewhat suspect back line often enough to cause a lot of trouble. Ellen White has been especially impressive, and is probably the key player for their high press to be effective, and the squad is a bit spoiled for choice (the proof of this is that a player like Rachel Daly can’t crack the starting lineup, and understandably so), with both Bethany Mead and Georgia Stanway pushing for more time despite both being under 25.
England, 3-1.
FRANCE – BRAZIL
France remains one of the class sides of the field for me, especially if you figure Wendie Renard is unlikely to continue to be their opponent’s leading scorer. They’re simply more talented than Brazil, end to end, and while it’s not clear she’ll get time on the wing, I do think Delphine Cascarino could have a breakout game here: I don’t see any part of Brazil’s back line that is set to cope with her pace on the ball.
Even if Cascarino doesn’t play, I would look for Amadine Henry and Eugénie Le Sommer to dominate play (and get kicked in the ankles an awful lot–this one could be quite chippy).
France 2-1.
SPAIN – USA
I do love me this Spain team, but I think it’s just too soon for them. For all the jingoism that surrounds the USA team, the truth is they are pretty magnificent. Four years ago, there were doubts that either Tobin Heath or Megan Rapinoe would make this team; watching them crown their careers by performing at the top of their game is pretty sweet.
Jennifer Hermoso is getting a lot of attention for Spain, but for me their most dangerous attacker has been 20 year old Lucía García.
I’m going to let my heart dominate the prediction: 1-1 with the USA proceeding on PK’s.
SWEDEN – CANADA
I just remain entirely unconvinced by Sweden. And this Canada team is knocking on the door of the top rank. As Jessie Fleming has grown, she seems really comfortable playing further up the pitch, and Christine Sinclair is still great in spots. Canada’s defensive line rivals France in their ability to both defend and attack–perhaps no team can match Canada’s options at fullback, with Allysha Chapman, Jayde Riviere, and Ashley Lawrence all providing excellent options.
Nichelle Prince has looked very dangerous all tournament–and I don’t think that’s just the Houston Dash fan in me speaking up.
Sweden just looks very … staid and unremarkable. So I think this goes one of two ways. Either Canada in a rout, 4-1, or 0-0 with Sweden getting through on PKs. I’ll be rooting for the former.
ITALY – CHINA
How did we get here?
Italy has been the surprise of the tournament, and are really hard to judge: their victories have been opportunistic, and tactically very smart. The latter will remain present, but the former has lot of luck involved.
Still, their ability to get goals from a variety of sources is clearly impressive, and that defense has been pretty stout.
Given that China has been pretty miserable, I think the Italians success lasts one more game.
Italy, 2-0.
NETHERLANDS – JAPAN
This Dutch squad is going to be hard to beat. The key to how far they’ll go, I think, is whether they can find a way for Lieke Martens to get going. I am a huge Vivianne Miedema fan, and the attack on the wing with Shanice van de Sanden for most of the game, replaced by Lineth Beerensteyn at the end has been fantastically effective.
Combine that with a strong defense and with Japan’s general ineffectiveness, and this should swing solidly towards the team in orange.
Netherlands, 3-0.