WWC2015: Round of Sixteen and Quarterfinals Preview

{If you want to see how I did, previews of this round here, that post also has links to write-ups of each matchday of the group stage.

Commentary is grouped by quarterfinal matchup, not in the order the games were played.}

SWEDEN v GERMANY

Germany just looks very impressive: they have been the most consistent of the frontrunners, and they seem to still have a gear or three yet to come.

I had pegged Célia Šašić as the key up front, and she did score more goals, but wow, was Anja Mittag impressive. She had such an influence on the game in two primary ways: first, her runs off the ball constantly created space in the Swedish back line; second, her defensive pressure consistently either kept the ball in Germany’s attacking third or led to turnovers in midfield allowing Germany to recycle possession.

Between Mittag up front and the interplay between Simone Laudehr and Leonie Maier on the right flank, Sweden had two highly dangerous threats to respond to, and they just couldn’t cover it effectively. While not leading directly to the goal, Germany’s setup on the right flank is really impressive, and kudos should be given to Silvia Neid for her willingness to, essentially, play two wing-backs and rely on their constant interplay and overlap to cover the functional responsibilities of both the fullback and the attacking midfielder.

If you’re watching the game, keep tabs on how differently the left side and the right side of the German attack function: on the right, Maier and Laudehr are in constant motion up and down; on the left, Alexandra Popp tends to cut inside and Tabea Kemme functions more like a traditional fullback. That means Popp is often a threat inside the box, but it also means that side of their attack is a lot less dynamic and fluid.

We got to see Jennifer Cramer for a few minutes, which was nice, even if she was a bit out of position at DL.

Sweden battled well and Linda Sembrant‘s goal was a deserved reward for a very hard day in midfield for her.

FRANCE v KOREA REPUBLIC

This was the France we all expected to see, at least at the start of the first half: powerful, fast, and with a relentless offensive surge keyed by the speed of Elodie Thomis and the uncompromising skill of Eugenie Le Sommer. It looked for a while as if Les Bluettes would be able to choose the final score.

And then, and then, and then … for the end of the first half and most of the second half, the game collapsed into a plodding affair where, while Korea never particularly looked like scoring, the French seemed to fold back into the slower, unimaginative play that plagued them earlier in the tournament.

You can argue managing the game and it was well won all you want, but that just won’t do against a powerhouse like Germany.

The exception, of course, was the third goal, immediately after halftime, which was mostly a case of Le Sommer saying thank you, yes, I will do it all myself until the very end. She is one helluva player.

But let’s not lose sight of how France started, for it was spectacular. Much has been made of the assist from Le Sommer on Marie Laure Delie‘s opener, but it was the pass before the pass, the controlled stab by Camille Abily that really set the whole thing in motion. Abily and Amandine Henry are the unsung heroes for France, sitting behind the waves of attackers.

The second goal was more a factor of farcical defending, but Thomis terrorized the right flank of the Korean defense all night, and she certainly deserved to get her name on the scoresheet.

And, to top it all off, a Kadidiatou Diani sighting! Whoo-hoo!

#Quarterfinal 1: GERMANY v FRANCE

Yowzah. This is easily the most anticipated match of the tournament to date. I think it will be very, very close. Neither team has played an opponent of this caliber, and it will be interesting to see how they handle it.

There are, of course, blowout scenarios: Germany just cannot handle the pace of Thomis and Le Sommer, and France is able to jump on them early then pack it in and defend late; or Germany is just too strong and control midfield throughout on their way to another 2-0 victory without seeming to break a sweat.

But I think the more likely is a tight contest, where the teams match up quite well. The most interesting tactical battles will be in the center of the field, where Abily and Henry will match up against, well, whomever Neid decides to start–it will be two of the group of Dzsenifer Marozsan, Melanie Leupolz, and Lena Goessling, but I’m unsure which two (my guess is Goessling, and then if Leupolz’s departure was due to health, her if she is healthy, but if Neid was unhappy with her first half against Sweden and replaced her because of her performance, Marozsan).

Germany will be without Saskia Bartusiak due to yellow card accumulation, but they have (along with the USA) one of the two deepest squads in the tournament, and should be able to fill in without missing too much.

Key Matchups

Leonie Maier & Simone Laudehr v Laure Boulleau & Louisa Necib

This is essentially the battle of the flank (Germany’s right, France’s left) and it assumes that Necib does nothing between now and kickoff to fall out of Philippe Bergeroo‘s good graces. Boulleau had been a strong two-way player so far, but Necib is not very interested in playing defense: if Germany is able to overload that side of the field, it will do great things for them (note that this is true, whether or not the goal comes from that side–drawing Wendie Renard out of position is as useful for their attackers in the center of the field as it is for those on the flank).

In parallel, I don’t believe Germany has had to deal with as creative a player on the flank as Necib can be, and she could punish the German’s tendencies to push forward too aggressively. The key word in that sentence is can, as the subtle, creative, influential Necib has really yet to show up for France.

Célia Šašić & Anje Mittag v Wendie Renard & Laura Georges

The German forwards have yet to face a pair of centerbacks as strong as the French duo. The closest was their match against Norway, where Mittag and Šašić’s influence was dimmed considerably.

Eugenie Le Sommer v Everyone

Nobody has had an answer for Le Sommer yet. She is usually the focus of the opposition defense, and that makes it seem like she disappears for stretches of play, but her moments of brilliance almost always lead to clear chances, if not outright goals.

I will be rooting for France and betting on Germany.

CAMEROON v CHINA

Cameroon started much brighter and looked like the favorite to take an early lead, but they were loose with their final passes, and unable to generate the same space between their attackers and the Chinese defenders they had created in previous games.

While against the run of play at the time, China’s goal was very well taken: the corner kick flew deep, just over Gaelle Enganamouit‘s head, and a soft volley found Wang Shanshan all alone in the box and she half-volleyed the ball out of the air and into the net. That’s a great, technically astute, difficult play, and it was deserved.

But the story of the game wasn’t China’s organization (which was much harped on by the announcers), but Cameroon’s inability to find the final, special touch or move to turn a half-chance into a direct chance at goal. Both Enganamouit and Gabrielle Onguene were less assured than they had been in prior matches, and while Cameroon had more possession–and certainly more possession in the attacking third–they did little with it.

Their defense was ragged all day, and this easily could have been a 3-0 win for China.

That last point is important: when given the chance on multiple breakaways, China’s striker lacked the ability to put the ball in the back of the net.

This Chinese team is a good side, and they certainly point to a national program that is returning to prominence. But this was merely a competent win for them, and it’s hard to see them going much beyond this in the tournament.

USA v COLOMBIA

I love the story of the plucky underdog resisting the dominant traditional power as much as anyone. But for all the slow motion replays of Lady Andrade dancing on the ball, this one was really never in doubt, the key question that loomed was when and not if the USA would score.

Now … the way it happened was certainly a bit unexpected, the scoreless first half, especially. But as soon as Alex Morgan popped up with the ball behind the Colombian back line, they were in trouble, and let’s say Catalina Perez doesn’t get red-carded there. Does that really change the outcome of the game?

No, not in all likelihood.

That glosses over some very strong performances by Colombia, most notably Ingrid Vidal and Diana Ospina up front and Angela Clavijo on their back line (yes, the PK call was correct, but still: Clavijo was tough as nails in a very difficult position).

But, this was going to be a USA win all along, from Megan Rapinoe looking strong on the wing in the first half, to Abby Wambach‘s best game of the tournament (even with the missed penalty), to the continued rock-solid play of Julie Johnston and Becky Sauerbrunn on the back line.

There are, of course, red flags: you’ll hear a lot about the need for more goals, but I am more concerned with the number of unforced errors, especially on relatively easy passes and with a tendency to not be strong enough in the tackle. The latter could certainly be a product of Colombia’s particular skills, but the former falls squarely and solely on the USA’s shoulders.

#Quarterfinal 2: USA v CHINA

Obviously from the above, I remain unimpressed by China, and listening to the media I think that is the prevailing view, although nobody seems willing to come out and say it: all they can talk about are things like organization and vague comments that really seem to be memories of the Chinese teams of decades past.

I think Colombia was a tougher opponent for America, and I look for the USA to win this one relatively easily. Yes, missing both Rapinoe and Lauren Holiday will hurt, but Morgan Brian had a very solid twenty minutes against Colombia, getting back well defensively and playing two very nice balls into the box for teammates, and her stepping in for Holiday is, in many ways, fortunate: it prevents Jill Ellis from throwing her out wide, where my best guess is that Christine Press will try to replace Rapinoe (although I would prefer me some Sydney Leroux).

Still, a midfield anchored by Brian, Carli Lloyd, and Tobin Heath sitting behind a trio of Wambach, Morgan, and Press should give China more than they can handle.

Key Matchups

Li Dongna & Zhao Rong v Abby Wambach

This assumes that Wambach starts, which I think is a pretty safe bet. Wambach’s game revolves around her ability to maneuver around the opposing center backs, so this matchup is pretty important.

Tang Jiali (or replacement) v Morgan Brian & Carli Lloyd

I don’t know if Jiali was pulled of for injury or performance. I still think she was China’s best player in the early games, and this is the point on the field where the USA’s Achilles heel exists, if they have one. The basic scenario is this: because all of the American midfielders (aside from Shannon Boxx) have strong attacking instincts, a gap can appear between their midfield and their very strong defensive line. A quick, creative player (like Jiali) can exploit that gap, either on their own, or by using it as a way to setup passing lanes to connect with their forwards.

To counteract this, Brian and Lloyd have to make sure to watch their back door, one of them always being willing to drop deeper and protect against the furthest forward opponent midfielder. This tends to balance out, as the relentless American attack tends to draw their opponents all upfield, bringing their deepest midfielder into the attack as well.

Colombia was, I think, more successful in exploiting this than China will be due to their greater quickness and comfort on the ball. We’ll see.

The USA wins comfortably, despite the constant pessimism of the announcers.

AUSTRALIA v BRAZIL

A very open game played in miserable conditions. This one easily could have seen more goals, and probably should have. Australia was relatively fortunate to escape two good chances by Brazil: a sizzling shot from Marta that was well saved by Lydia Williams and then Formiga‘s header that caught the right side of the post, but not by enough to trickle in.

The only goal of the match highlighted Brazil’s biggest weakness, the play of Luciana in goal. The through ball to Lisa De Vanna was fabulous, and her first time shot was hard and low, to Luciana’s right. But the goalkeeper’s from was all wrong, as she tried to scoop up a ball that was moving away from her, and only managed to shove it into the path of an onrushing Kyah Simon, who finished cleanly for the 1-0 lead.

Overall, the result was a little cruel: Australia’s only two shots on goal in the entire match came in that single sequence and Brazil probably deserved at least one goal to send the match into extra time.

Still, making it into the quarterfinals of the World Cup should require competent goalkeeping, and a good game from Williams proved the difference over a poor one from her Brazilian counterpart.

JAPAN v NETHERLANDS

Japan’s early goal exposed some Dutch inexperience: Loes Geurts froze on the initial header and was slightly off her angle when she recovered, and then the initial clearance was quite weak. It was started, predictably, by a lovely cross from Aya Miyama, who continued to stake a claim as one of the absolute best midfield players in the world. More suited to a cenral role, Miyama was as influential on the left wing as a player can be who isn’t a heels-on-the-chalk winger, assured and calm on the ball and well-positioned to help her team defensively when they lost it.

Japan was lucky the game wasn’t tied immediately after the restart, but it’s not like Japan was toothless, as exemplified by the lovely run by Aya Sameshima down the left channel and her give-and-go returned with a class one-touch volley from Shinobu Ohno.

The half was lethargic at times: Ohno had a header go just wide immediately before the whistle, but aside from that there was little to notice, other than a clear tactical choice by the Dutch to sit very deep in their own half. There was plenty of space for all 21 players to be in the Dutch half of the field, and while I understand their desire to counter-attack, the game cried out for a bit more pressure to be applied.

It got it in the second half, and the Dutch were the better team for most of the period, at least until the series of feints, touches, and runs that set Mizuho Sakaguchi free for her goal to give Japan a 2-0 lead.

That put the match to bed until an inexplicable lapse by Ayumi Kaihori in the Japanese goal gave the Dutch a lifeline in stoppage time, but there wasn’t enough left in the match for the Dutch to recover, and Japan goes through.

In the end, the Dutch looked what they are: a young team, full of promise, but not yet ready to compete at this level. Vivianne Miedema was unable to take advantage of the World Cup to showcase her talents, and their overall play was often lacking: too many passes that found an opponent instead of a teammate, and too many wasted first touches on the balls that were on target. That last is key: for a team that plays as much of a possession-based style as they do, controlling the initial pass is key, something Japan did quite well throughout.

This was, I think, Japan’s best game of the tournament: they were calm defensively, used the entire field when they had the ball, and were continually clever and imaginative in attack.

#Quarterfinal 3: AUSTRALIA v JAPAN

This game could play very similarly to the match between Japan and the Netherlands: Australia will look to counter-attack, ceding possession to Japan, especially outside of the final third of the field.

But it should be a tougher, more physical game and (thankfully) a faster one as well: this Australia team has some real burners in Samantha Kerr, Caitlin Foord, De Vanna, and Simon and their speed and physicality should be more disruptive to Japan the Dutch were.

It’s a question of how Japan do against the Australian defense: if they are able to move the ball as deftly as they did in the final game of the round of sixteen, they should score and will end Australia’s run.

Key Matchups

Elise Kellond-Knight v Aya Miyama

It may not be these exact players, but the key question is how Australia’s defensive midfielders–Kellond-Knight and either Tameka Butt or Katrina Gorry–fare against the waves of Japanese players who slide in behind their forwards (Miyama, Sakaguchi, and Nahomi Kawasumi most notably, but the forwards exchange positions quite often, so you will see both Ohno and especially Yuki Ogimi in this matchup as well). Australia cannot afford to get caught out too far upfield, losing the numerical battle in the center of the pitch, especially along the edge of the box.

Aya Sameshima v Caitlin Foord & Lisa De Vanna

Much of Australia’s success comes from the pace and explosiveness of Foord and De Vanna down their right flank. I would expect Norio Sasaki to change his lineup a bit, as Sameshima is really an attacking wing-back: they’ll need some help on that side, or they risk being overrun on the counter.

Azusa Iwashimizu & Saki Kumagai v Alanna Kennedy, Laura Alleway & Emily Van Egmond

Set pieces are the refuge of the lazy analyst (or the ex-central defender–I’m looking at you, Alexi Lalas), but they do have merit. Australia is significantly bigger than Japan, and their height advantage on free kicks should be noticeable. Given their pace on the counter, I would expect them get a half-dozen chances at corner kicks or free kicks into the box: at that rate, the height differentials may indeed come into play.

I just don’t know. I think this game will be 2-1, with a late, dramatic goal, but it’s a coin flip for me as to who gets it.

CANADA v SWITZERLAND

This was a far better game than feared, with both teams showing flashes in attack throughout, but neither being able to make that extra touch, that extra pass, that extra bit of control to raise the quality of play.

That sounds harsh, and I don’t mean it to: these are both solid, hard-working teams, full of good instincts. But with an aging Christine Sinclair and nobody to really complement Ramona Bachmann, neither side has a true difference maker, someone who, every time they get the ball, is a threat to do something spectacular.

Bachmann, for me the best player on the field for this game, is the closest to that, although an argument could be made that Kadeisha Buchanan is, in fact, that exact player from the defensive side.

Canada’s goal was well taken: a nice cross from surprise starter Rhiann Wilkinson, a strong touch from Sinclair, and Josée Bélanger buried her shot with confidence.

Still, the game was in doubt to the end, and it took a fantastic save from Erin McLeod to deny Vanessa Bernauer from close range after a commanding run and cutback pass from Bachmann.

NORWAY v ENGLAND

As dominant as Norway was in the first half, England was quite fortunate to go into halftime scoreless and, when Solveig Gulbrandsen nodded the ball in off a corner kick to give the Norwegians a 1-0 lead, the game felt like it could turn into a dominant win.

But England rallied, a mixture of some tactical adjustments by coach Mark Sampson at halftime, some smart substitutions (including the entrance of Jill Scott on the right wing), and the heat seeming to take its toll on the Norwegians, who were a noticeable step slower as the half wore on.

And, Lucy Bronze‘s strike from the edge of the box was a stunner: Scott and Jodie Taylor combined nicely to set it up, and Bronze stepped into it, sending a rocket past Ingrid Hjelmseth‘s near post.

Still it was a little bit of a lucky win: England took the lead having had exactly two shots on goal, both going in. Norway’s front two were dominant in the first half, with both Isabell Herlovsen and Ada Hegerberg creating multiple chances, but Herlovsen faded over the second half and while Hegerberg had several promising breakaways, Karen Bardsley was always up to the task in England’s goal.

So, England moves on, for a date with Canada.

#Quarterfinal 4: ENGLAND v CANADA 

We have yet to see Canada play a truly impressive game, and England has only shone in patches. So, this one could go any way at all, but is most likely to be a contest that is entertaining for moments and boring for all too long stretches. There are a handful of players who could change that: Sinclair, Karen Carney, Fran Kirby.

The team that generates more chances will win–which sounds awfully trite, but what I mean is that we have two teams with different approaches so far in the tournament. England has been most successful when they have put together slick exchanges from the middle of the field–think Kirby’s goal or the passes that freed Bronze for her laser shot; while Canada has lived on service from the wings, whether from Wilkinson against Switzerland or from the continually energetic and impressive Allysha Chapman on the left side.

That puts the onus on those players to raise their game and on their counters–England’s centerback pairing of  Laura Bassett and Steph Houghton and Canada’s Desiree Scott (or her ongoing substitute, Kaylyn Kyle). This may swing the balance of the game to England: Houghton and Bassett have been quite solid throughout, and containing England’s midfield will require both Ashley Lawrence and Sophie Schmidt to do more defensive work than they’ve shown a stomach for so far.

Key Matchups

Lucy Bronze v Allysha Chapman

This flank should be fun to watch: Bronze is more athletic, a bundle of pace and power, while Chapman has been a continual ball of energy for Canada, equally adept charging forward and tracking back.

Erin McLeod v Karen Bardsley

I know this is a bit of a cheat, as the goalkeepers never actually face each other (I mean, you know, unless we get deep into penalty kicks). But both teams have at times relied on their keepers pulling a save from nowhere, and the difference in style is striking: Bardsley is all length and quickness while McLeod is a pit bull around the penalty area. Either one of them could have one of those games where they are unbeatable, or where they pull an absolute howler.

John Herdman v Mark Sampson

This may seem like another cheat, but I list both coaches because of the willingness they have shown to change their starting eleven (and, hence, some of their tactical play as well). For example, Herdman could drop Desiree Scott or Schmidt in favor of the more defensively aware Kyle and Sampson could return to Jill Scott (or, dare I say, Eniola Aluko) in search of more individual flair for his side. This game has a bit of a chess match feel, so the focus on the head coaches feels appropriate.

All that taken into account, I think the quality of the England side runs a little deeper, so let’s go with that: a narrow victory for England, possibly in extra time.