WWC2019: The Semifinals (for real this time)!

Posted on July 1, 2019 by Daniel (@MKNN)

Four games remaining …

How We Did

Meh. No exact scores, got Germany – Sweden wrong (along with everyone else), and had basically refused to pick the USA – France match.

England – USA

Jill Ellis‘ highly conservative style, demonstrated from her reluctance to promote youth to her going to a 5 women back line in the game against France, is not my cup of tea. But … it gets things done.

With all of the attention on Megan Rapinoe–and, come on, Queen, as the kids these days say–too little has been paid to Julie Ertz. Ellis’ move to a back 5 is basically telling the fullbacks to stay flat on defense and telling Ertz to slide between the CBs. And it makes the American defense massively challenging to break down: if you try to cross the ball in, Ertz is an extra body to head it away; if you try to push down the wings, the other CBs can safely help the fullbacks, knowing she’s behind them.

And in this upcoming match, she will again be the key player, as the battle between Ertz and Ellen White will go a long way to determining this one. White’s pressing should be less effective against the USA, and England will need more out of both Fran Kirby and Keira Walsh in the midfield offensively.

If you’re rooting for England, your hope rests on the job Kirby and Walsh did on the other side of the ball, effectively controlling Caroline Graham Hansen, which is no mean feat. That, and the fact that Alex Morgan really does seem to have lost a half step, without which she struggles to gain separation from upper tier defenders (sorry about those 5 goals, Thailand). She and Rapinoe and Tobin Heath will be a handful for Steph Houghton and Millie Bright, but I suspect the real threat for the USA will be down the wings, if they can get Crystal Dunn or Mallory Pugh (as a sub, of course) into space.

England’s choice between Alex Greenwood and Demi Stokes will be informative, as Stokes is far better tracking back defensively, while Greenwood offers more going forward. I would start Stokes, and essentially keep 3 back at most times while Lucy Bronze does her thing on the right side. Bronze against Dunn will be a key battle as well.

England’s dominance over Norway was, at least in part, due to a horrible day by the Norwegian captain, Maren Mjelde, usually a stoutly capable defender. Here, sadly, she bears much responsibility for eahc of England’s first 2 goals (on the first especially, as she and Ingrid Moe Wold inexplicably sprinted back to the 6 yard box, despite the English attackers pulling off their runs around the penalty spot).

It is highly unlikely that Becky Sauerbrunn or Abby Dahlkemper make those kind of mistakes. As such, for England to have a chance, someone—Jill Scott, Nikki Parris, Beth Mead–needs to make some magic happen. It’s possible, I just don’t see it happening unless the USA just has a horrid game.

I think England has had a great tournament, and I expect this to be a tough, physical game. But I expect the USA to win, and perhaps win comfortably. Let’s call it 3-2 USA.

Netherlands – Sweden

Well, that was interesting. Germany looked vulnerable all tournament, but they also seemed to be coming into form at the right time, and when Lina Magull was able to strike a great volley home, it looked like all was right with their world.

But Sweden refused to roll over, took advantage of their chances, and held on for dear life at the end to get through. It was impressive, and Sofia Jakobsson picked a great day to have a great game.

And now they face a Dutch team that still looks to be caught in a low gear. So, which way does this go? Either the Netherlands put it all together and–much as I expected them to do against Italy–Vivianne Miedema and Lieke Martens both have strong games on the same day, and the orange wave crests towards the final; or they continue to struggle for dozens of minutes at a time, opening the door for this Swedish side to pull another upset.

As much as I like Stina Blackstenius, as much as the Swedish defense impressed against Germany, I just don’t see it happening for them.

With an eye towards both this game and Germany’s exit, one reason I favor the Netherlands here–and this is something nobody would have said before the tournament–is that I think this Dutch back line is playing better than Germany’s was. I’m just not sold on Marina Hegering and Sara Doorsoun, and while I love Giulia Gwinn, I love her for what she does in the attacking third more than her ability as a fullback. Dominique Bloodworth has been something of a revelation, and Stefanie Van Der Gragt more than solid as her CB partner, and neither Desiree Van Lunteren nor Merel Van Dongen have been particularly exposed down the flanks.

That foursome, protected by the still pretty marvelous Danielle Van De Donk will, I think, stifle Sweden in this game.

Netherlands, 2-1.

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Reading Well: Unsheltered by Barbara Kingsolver

Posted on June 28, 2019 by Daniel (@MKNN)

I have very high expectations each time I start a book by Barbara Kingsolver. Most of the time, she exceeds them.

Unsheltered (2018) is a good book, but not among her best. The premise/structure is pretty lovely: the novel alternates between a family in the middle of the 2010s that has found themselves–despite doing “all the right things”–struggling in the current economy in a small town in Pennsylvania and a family in the same town in the second half of the nineteenth century. The storylines are connected by dilapidated houses, familial relationships, and the final words of each chapter forming the title of the next.

As always, Kingsolver’s families, and especially her female characters, ring deeply and emotionally true. This is especially true for the contemporary storyline, where a formerly fully employed journalist is struggling to hold her family together, a unit that includes an obscene and infirm father-in-law; a husband who, failing in the pursuit of tenure, is reduced to the struggles of adjunct jobs in academia; a son whose partner commits suicide shortly after the birth of a grandchild; and a prodigal daughter.

Unsheltered is unapologetically political, focused on moments when an older way of looking at the world must give way to new knowledge, and the often-violent resistance to such upheaval, especially for those in power. In the earlier century, this is the rise of Darwinism; in the present time, it is the looming implications of climate change, set against the backdrop of a Trump candidacy.

There are some lovely moments in the book, and her exploration of a historically under-publicized female biologist is a nice addition to general knowledge.

#WhatIWishICouldDo

I mean … in some ways I wish I could be Barbara Kingsolver, right? But in terms of craft, her ability to evoke emotional connections between her characters in a way that also implicates the reader as a 3rd party remains stellar.

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WWC2019: The Quarterfinals!

Posted on June 26, 2019 by Daniel (@MKNN)

{ Got ahead of myself and originally published this as the Semis. Whoops. }

How We Did

Not bad. Not great, but not bad. Evidently, I don’t respect Scandinavia as much as I should, as both Norway and Sweden surprised. The rest went pretty much as expected, although I only got a single game exactly right in the scoreline (Italy over China, 2-0). I did have France over Brazil 2-1, but not in extra time.

So, not bad. It gets tougher from here on out.

NORWAY – ENGLAND

Norway was stronger defensively than I thought they would be, and England is always capable of a toothless offensive performance. But I think England is just too deep up front right now, and I expect them to find some space in the attacking third.

The play of Fran Kirby and Keira Walsh (assuming the lineup stays static) will be key: how England moves through the middle of the park and how they shield their back line are likely to determine the game. The former will dictate whether Lucy Bronze and Nikita Parris can be sprung into space down the right side and will impact how deep Ellen White has to come for the ball (White staying in the attacking third is good for England). The latter will be key to negating Norway’s counter-attacks and, more importantly, whether England can do anything to slow Caroline Graham Hansen.

That’s key, as Graham Hansen will be the best player on the field, always capable of turning the game herself.

England 2-1.

FRANCE – USA

As much hype as this game will get, it can probably not be overdone. This matchup would be, in my opinion, a worthy final game, and the winner has to be the favorite to lift the trophy at the end.

I would watch 3 things in this game:

  • The flanks. Megan Rapinoe and Tobin Heath have been fantastic, but Spain was largely able to limit their influence, partially by pinning them a bit further upfield and making them carry a larger defensive load. Look for France to attempt the same, especially through Kadidiatou Diani and Delphine Cascarino off the bench. The fullbacks for the USA–Kelley O’Hara and Crystal Dunn–both have the pace to keep up with the French attackers (a situation with which they are largely unfamiliar), but both also are used to rampaging upfield as part of the attack, something that will carry far more risk in this game.
  • Alyssa Naeher. Naeher is quite good, but this is the 1st time in decades the USA has not has a truly world-class GK between the sticks. Amadine Henry and Eugénie Le Sommer love to hit the ball from distance, and either could cause Naeher some problems.
  • Julie Ertz. There isn’t a better DM in the women’s game, especially when you consider Ertz’ ability to score off set pieces. Ertz’ ability to provide cover defensively is absolutely critical. The more you see her pulled to the side to help defend Amel Majri on an overlapping run or Diani or Viviane Asseyi, the more problematic life will be for the USA. However, if Ertz is able to stay in the middle of the field, the triangle of her, Becky Sauerbrunn, and Abby Dahlkemper could be very hard for the French to solve.

I dunno. I just wanna’ fanboy this one. 1-1, France on PKs.

ITALY – NETHERLANDS

I’ve enjoyed Italy, too, but it ends here.

Sari Van Veenendaal isn’t mentioned often in the discussion of the best GK’s in the world, but that performance against Japan may change that. That said, if Italy is to have a chance, it’s going to be in play similar to what preceded Yui Hasegawa‘s goal for Japan: quick movement, a moment of miscommunication, and a player through in space against Van Veenendaal.

The Dutch ducked a bullet against Japan, but Lieke Martens and Vivianne Miedema have yet to click in the same game. I think they do here, we get to see a couple Miedema somersaults, and Italy is left in the wake.

Netherlands, 3-0.

GERMANY – SWEDEN

Could Sweden do it again? Sure! But it’s not likely. Germany had their best performance of the tournament against Nigeria, and I think they roll on.

Still, I didn’t think the Swedish CB combo of Nilla Fischer and Linda Sembrant could contain Canada’s attack, but they and especially Hanna Glas on the right flank, did quite well.

I will stick with the same binary from Sweden’s prior match: this is either an easy game for Germany, or it is an absolute nail-biter, destined to be determined by a single kick or PKs. I’ll root for the latter, but if I had to pick, I’d go with Germany, 3-0.

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WWC2019: The Round of 16

Posted on June 22, 2019 by Daniel (@MKNN)

{ I’m writing this immediately after the Germany-Nigeria game–travel and work got in the way of getting it done before that. }

Nothing too surprising coming out of the groups–sure, exactly how Scotland/ Argentina/ Nigeria/ Chile/ China would end up was a jumble, but there was always going to be some churn in the final slots.

OVERALL NOTES

More and more, this seems to be a World Cup of transition. That makes the media information especially misleading: traditionally strong teams (China, Japan, Brazil, Sweden) just aren’t all that great right now, but you’ll hear them talked about as if they are.

It’s simply lazy, but, sadly, it’s to be expected.

There is also some transition at the top: Canada and Australia especially can make an argument to be included in the elite teams.

GERMANY – NIGERA

Already played, so no prediction, and more analysis than on the other games.

This Nigeria team was a disappointment for me–not in losing to Germany, which was clearly expected, but in their overall performance. It was nice to Rasheedat Ajibade get a few minutes, and I would think we will hear from her at the 2023 version of this extravaganza.

I don’t know what to make of Germany right now. In Sara Däbritz, Lina Magull, and Melanie Leupolz there is a great young trio of talent, and Giulia Gwinn seems (surprisingly to me) to have totally adapted to a fullback/wingback type role. In doing so, she’s keeping one of the most impressive attacking fullbacks in 2015, Leonie Maier, on the bench. Add in the possible return of Dzsenifer Marozsán and the overrated-but-still-quite-good Alexandra Popp, and this team is loaded. But, but, but … I just remain unconvinced.

There are 2 narratives competing here: one is they did just enough to win against China and Spain and are now rounding into form; the other is that they were pushed to the limit against the better teams they have played, making the wins against South Africa and Nigeria less impressive.

Their next game–against Sweden or Canada–should be excellent.

NORWAY – AUSTRALIA

I think this is potentially the best game of the Round of 16, and I think there will be goals. Neither team has impressed terribly on defense, and each has a world class attacker in Norway’s Caroline Graham Hansen and Australia’s Sam Kerr.

I do think that, in the end, Norway misses Ada Hegerberg, so I’ll go with Australia, 3-2, with Kerr taking over the Golden Boot race from Alex Morgan.

ENGLAND – CAMEROON

They aren’t called indomitable for nothing … that said, Cameroon has been less impressive this time around. They’ve done just enough, and in Ajara Nchout Njoya seem to have found a capable complement to Gabrielle Onguéné and Gaëlle Enganamouit (who has yet to really make her mark here in 2019).

I still think Raissa Feudjio is a great talent, although she seems to be being called upon to play more of a wide role, which I don’t think is her strength.

All that said, this England squad is loaded, and should get through Cameroon’s somewhat suspect back line often enough to cause a lot of trouble. Ellen White has been especially impressive, and is probably the key player for their high press to be effective, and the squad is a bit spoiled for choice (the proof of this is that a player like Rachel Daly can’t crack the starting lineup, and understandably so), with both Bethany Mead and Georgia Stanway pushing for more time despite both being under 25.

England, 3-1.

FRANCE – BRAZIL

France remains one of the class sides of the field for me, especially if you figure Wendie Renard is unlikely to continue to be their opponent’s leading scorer. They’re simply more talented than Brazil, end to end, and while it’s not clear she’ll get time on the wing, I do think Delphine Cascarino could have a breakout game here: I don’t see any part of Brazil’s back line that is set to cope with her pace on the ball.

Even if Cascarino doesn’t play, I would look for Amadine Henry and Eugénie Le Sommer to dominate play (and get kicked in the ankles an awful lot–this one could be quite chippy).

France 2-1.

SPAIN – USA

I do love me this Spain team, but I think it’s just too soon for them. For all the jingoism that surrounds the USA team, the truth is they are pretty magnificent. Four years ago, there were doubts that either Tobin Heath or Megan Rapinoe would make this team; watching them crown their careers by performing at the top of their game is pretty sweet.

Jennifer Hermoso is getting a lot of attention for Spain, but for me their most dangerous attacker has been 20 year old Lucía García.

I’m going to let my heart dominate the prediction: 1-1 with the USA proceeding on PK’s.

SWEDEN – CANADA

I just remain entirely unconvinced by Sweden. And this Canada team is knocking on the door of the top rank. As Jessie Fleming has grown, she seems really comfortable playing further up the pitch, and Christine Sinclair is still great in spots. Canada’s defensive line rivals France in their ability to both defend and attack–perhaps no team can match Canada’s options at fullback, with Allysha Chapman, Jayde Riviere, and Ashley Lawrence all providing excellent options.

Nichelle Prince has looked very dangerous all tournament–and I don’t think that’s just the Houston Dash fan in me speaking up.

Sweden just looks very … staid and unremarkable. So I think this goes one of two ways. Either Canada in a rout, 4-1, or 0-0 with Sweden getting through on PKs. I’ll be rooting for the former.

ITALY – CHINA

How did we get here?

Italy has been the surprise of the tournament, and are really hard to judge: their victories have been opportunistic, and tactically very smart. The latter will remain present, but the former has lot of luck involved.

Still, their ability to get goals from a variety of sources is clearly impressive, and that defense has been pretty stout.

Given that China has been pretty miserable, I think the Italians success lasts one more game.

Italy, 2-0.

NETHERLANDS – JAPAN

This Dutch squad is going to be hard to beat. The key to how far they’ll go, I think, is whether they can find a way for Lieke Martens to get going. I am a huge Vivianne Miedema fan, and the attack on the wing with Shanice van de Sanden for most of the game, replaced by Lineth Beerensteyn at the end has been fantastically effective.

Combine that with a strong defense and with Japan’s general ineffectiveness, and this should swing solidly towards the team in orange.

Netherlands, 3-0.

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WWC2019: The Second Games

Posted on June 16, 2019 by Daniel (@MKNN)

A note on VAR to open. I’m a fan, for sure–getting calls right strikes me as generally important–but there are two points that, I think, need to be addressed:

  • First, if you look for a penalty, you will usually find one. It’s a little like holding in American football. So there needs to be some way of allowing the system to adjust for real-time perception for referees, especially on handballs. It may be just that we need to get through a year of an obscenely high number of penalties while defenders adjust.
  • Second, the rule on GK’s coming off the line needs some work. Every GK ever does it, and in fact is trained to do it (you’re taught to explode off the line at an angle, not directly sideways). When it’s egregious, it’s a clear issue; things like Sydney Schneider‘s save really should, imo, stand.

Anyhow, onto the games themselves.

#GROUP A

Nothing surprising here. France is clearly the best team, Norway has the inside track on 2nd place. Nigeria needs a tie against France to have a decent shot at progressing, which puts my prediction of them making it through at risk, although it’s possible 3 points would be enough if they only lose by a single goal.

An upset win over Norway by South Korea would really complicate things, so part of me will be rooting for that.

#GROUP B

Spain – China should be a very good game: China has been better than I thought they would be, but I’m still backing Spain to win that game, and perhaps win comfortably. The gap between Spain and Germany is closer than many had anticipated, but it’s still there.

If Spain does win, China’s progression gets very perilous, as they will have 3 points and a negative goal differential.

I’ll stick with Germany and Spain getting through.

#GROUP C

Wheeeee! Italy‘s win over Australia was the shock of the 1st round, Brazil‘s giving Australia all they could handle for a half was one of the surprises of the 2nd (remarkable how, if you take Marta and Formiga off–even at their combined age of several centuries–the team gets weaker).

Australia needs to pour it on against Jamaica, which is certainly quite a possibility. At the same time, while Alanna Kennedy remains magnificent, Bunny Shaw could easily find space behind the Aussie defense, keeping that game close. Still, if Australia wins, period, they should be through (and, in fact, a tie against Jamaica could see them squeak through as well).

Brazil – Italy is a total crap shoot: does Italy rest their best players? Who shows up for Brazil? Does Andressinha finally get let out of the doghouse? There is a chance for 3 teams to finish with 6 points each in this group, which is quite rare.

#GROUP D

Scotland is the disappointment of the tournament for me. Turns out, you need more than Erin Cuthbert and an aging Kim Little at this level …

Argentina–who have not impressed me terribly despite some stout defending and GK work–have an outside shot at progressing. If they beat Scotland, they should make it to the round of 16.

The Japan – England game should be most interesting solely for who plays: looking forward to England resting some players, allowing us to enjoy us some Rachel Daly.

#GROUP E

I think it was important for the Dutch to show up strong against Cameroon, and they–and especially Vivianne Miedema–certainly did. Miedema is a bit of a favorite, not least of all for the goofiness that lets a pale imitation of 7 year old’s somersault be her goal celebration. It’s easy to forget that she’s only 22, and already has 60 goals (in 77 appearances) for the national team: if anyone is shaping up to challenge Abby Wambach‘s (and soon to be Christine Sinclair‘s) record, it’s her.

It’s going to be hard for either Cameroon or New Zealand to progress: they will need both a win and a few goals to boot.

#GROUP F

One of my favorite moments so far? The Thailand coach struggling not to cry when her team scored against Sweden.

I really think this group does no favors for the USA: they won’t play a difficult, meaningful match until the round of 16, where they seem likely (if I am reading the permutations correctly) to hit Spain.

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Reading Well: Infinite Detail by Tim Maughan

Posted on June 13, 2019 by Daniel (@MKNN)

Infinite Detail (2019) is the debut novel from Tim Maughan, a journalist of some note.

It’s a good read, focusing on the relatively cataclysmic aftermath of an extended Internet outage. The setting is the near future, a world just slightly further along in its interconnectedness than our own. Wearable, Internet-connected glasses are a thing, and the economic dependence on international communication systems is even more ingrained. When those systems break down, so does global trade as transit and transport systems are crippled, and communication and economic systems quickly follow. The core notion is it doesn’t take many weeks of no shipping or air transport for the UK to struggle to feed itself.

The book alternates between chapters marked before and after, slowly building a vision both of what happened and what the impacts are. The best parts of the book draw on Maughan’s sophisticated understanding of the perils of an over-connected world, including impacts that are rarely highlighted, and his clear love for contemporary urban music, which fills one of the narrative threads.

Maughan’s journalistic background comes through, making it a very direct read: other than some details that are withheld as key plot points, little is left to inference. This works well, as the novel exists partially as fiction and partially as a warning essay about the perils of our current technological arcs. If that holds some interest, it’s well recommended.

#WhatIWishICouldDo

There is an authenticity to Maughan’s language, especially the dialogue, that is quite impressive. This is hard to do in alternate settings–either past or future–as it requires a keen ear for current slang, and then the creativity to adjust from there.

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WWC2019: The First Round of Games

Posted on June 11, 2019 by Daniel (@MKNN)

Notes and thoughts on the first games in each group.

GENERAL NOTES

I really want to highlight the difference between Argentina, Italy, and Brazil on one hand and Spain on the other. Twenty years ago, none of these countries cared about women’s soccer. Ten year’s ago, none of them cared. Then Spain began to care: they invested in the game, they began to hold coaches accountable, they began to develop players at an alarming rate.

But the other 3 are still very lackadaisical in their commitment. Instead, they skate by on a massively skilled talent base and very sparse support. And, in the case of Brazil, wheeling Marta out as if she were still 27. It’s a bit of a disgrace: with a little work, those 3 countries could have superior programs.

Meanwhile, Spain will be World Cup contenders in 4 years and, I would suspect, thereafter.

GROUP A

Just about the only sad note about France‘s demolishing of South Korea was Griedge Mbock Bathy‘s sumptous bicycle kick being called back (correctly) for offsides. Mbock Bathy is one of my favorite younger players–although at 24, she may be edging out of that category. She, Wendie Renard and Amel Majri are the core of easily the best defensive line in the world.

The Norway – Nigeria game was far more interesting, in that it was far, far closer than the 3-0 scoreline. Nigeria’s over-reliance on Francisca Ordega as an outlet is an interesting thing to watch: first, they may not do that against other opponents; second, Ordega can be a beast if she finds space; but third, perhaps that could be shut down tactically?

GROUP B

Germany is taking a lot of guff for the laborious nature of their victory over China. It’s a little unfair: Germany dominated the game. That said, the loss of Dzsenifer Marozsán for the rest of the group phase will be felt: she may be the single player the Germans will struggle most to replace. Also, yes, Giulia Gwinn!

I still like both Spain and South Africa, and again the scoreline flattered the Spaniards a bit. I would expect South Africa to beat China with a similar performance.

GROUP C

Don’t fret too much about Australia. Yeah, they lost; and yeah, it might get into their heads. But they were the better team, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them still emerge with 6 points atop the group.

And, don’t get too high on Brazil: this was more a case of Jamaica being outclassed than Brazil showing up well. Jamaica – Italy should be interesting: Jamaica has the pace to get behind the Italians back line who–other than Sara Gama–looked a little weak back there, but Italy’s midfield could totally dominate the game.

GROUP D

England – Scotland was a great game, which bodes well for the Scots; especially with Japan looking fairly toothless.

Argentina‘s #10–Estefanía Banini–had a showcase game, but she needs better options to supply for Argentina to do more.

GROUP E

The surprise here was that New Zealand was able to hang with Holland until the end. I do love me some Jill Roord, but this was not the prettiest of goals.

Cameroon – Canada was a little like Norway – Nigeria in that the scoreline flattered the Canadians. Still, #WeTheNorth and all that.

This still feels like the tightest group, especially if Holland is unable to get out of 3rd gear.

GROUP F

Sweden and Chile were a little hard to judge, given the deluge they had to endure. Still, while I still think Sweden is overrated, Chile is happy to be in France at all, so the result felt right.

There was another game in this group? Wait, what?

WHERE YOU AT DEPARTMENT

Andressinha, Rachel Daly, and Patricia Guijarro, I’m looking at you (Patri was, it should be said, injured before the tournament …). My suspicion is, of that trio, we see a fair bit of Daly, Guijarro is health-dependent, and Andressinha–although it pains me to write this–has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff.

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WWC2019: Predictions & What-Not

Posted on June 6, 2019 by Daniel (@MKNN)

Scrambling to get these out there before kickoff tomorrow.

Remember, the top 2 teams from each group, plus the next 4, make the knockout rounds.

It’s hard for the key match to not just always be the clash between the team I see finishing 2nd and the team I see finishing 3rd, but it seemed worthwhile to highlight some individual games.

#GROUP A

France, Nigeria, Norway, South Korea.

France should win the group, but 2nd place could be quite a fight. Nigeria are a bit enigmatic, but I think 2nd place comes down to the battle between them and Norway.

Qualifying: France, Norway, Nigeria
Key Match: Norway v Nigeria on 6/8. The winner will have the inside track on 2nd position, but I believe the loser still has a good chance to qualify.

#GROUP B

China, Germany, South Africa, Spain.

Anyone but Germany would be a shock; the question is whether Spain are actually as good as I think they are.

Qualifying: Germany, Spain
Key Match: Spain v South Africa on 6/8. If Spain stumbles, the group opens up dramatically.

#GROUP C

Australia, Brazil, Italy, Jamaica

This is a rough group to figure out. Australia is clearly the class of the four, but Italy and Brazil are both teams full of talent located in countries where support for the women’s game is sketchy at best. That situation can lead to poor preparation, poor coaching, and poor performances. Or it can lead to a team bonding together and taking off. And then there’s narrative darling Jamaica.

Qualifying: Australia, Brazil, Jamaica
Key Match: Brazil v Jamaica on 6/9. I believe this game will provide the most information on how the group will shake out.

#GROUP D

Argentina, England, Japan, Scotland.

The question here is if Scotland can do enough to make the knockout round. I think they will.

Qualifying: England, Japan, Scotland
Key Match: Japan v Scotland on 6/14. Scotland should lose to England and beat Argentina: a win against Japan probably sees them through to the next round.

#GROUP E

Cameroon, Canada, Netherlands, New Zealand.

This is the strongest group in my opinion, and should produce the best 3rd place team.

Qualifying: Netherlands, Canada, Cameroon
Key Match: Cameroon v New Zealand on 6/20. The final game of the group should decide 3rd place.

#GROUP F

Chile, Sweden, Thailand, USA.

Not much to say here: the USA is unlikely to be tested until the next round–against Spain if I’m correct above–at the earliest (I know, Sweden is good, but if they get a point against the USA, it will be a surprise).

Qualifying: USA, Sweden.
Key Match: Chile v Sweden on 6/11. If Chile has a shot at qualifying, they need to win their opening game.

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WWC2019: It’s Almost Time

Posted on June 3, 2019 by Daniel (@MKNN)

Gosh, it feels like 1200 days since we were here last …

I’m not sure what I plan to write about the World Cup about to kick off in France, but I’m sure I’ll probably match my output for WWC2015.

Somewhat random notes:

  • My player of the tournament from 2015, Norway’s Ada Hegerberg–who is probably the best player in the women’s game right now–will not be in France this summer due to an ongoing conflict with her country’s federation. I’ve heard two versions of the story, one where Hegerberg is making a principled stand about equality in Norway (a view that is complicated by the fact that it is one of the few countries where male and female players are paid equally); and the other where she is being selfish due to personal disagreements with the current coaching staff. Whatever the case, the tournament will be poorer for her absence.
    • A plug here for the team previews over at All White Kit, who note that Hegerberg’s absence is unlikely to really damage Norway, as their problems are more defensive than offensive. That said, I will miss seeing her run rampant.
  • My Under 23 Team from 2015 looks pretty good if I do say so myself. Of the countries that made it back to the 2019 tournament, every player I named made the squad, other than China’s Tang Jiali. From that group, I would look to Japan’s Mana Iwabuchi, Australia’s Samantha Kerr, and Canada’s Kadeisha Buchanan to star this year. Those three names are pretty obvious, though, so it’s not like that’s the product of shocking insight in any way.

If you read this last time around, you know I focus a lot on the talent that is moving into the full national team from the youth ranks. If you’re looking for under 23 talent likely to star this summer, I would look to

  • France’s Delphine Cascarino and Grace Geyoro. I expect Cascarino to see more of the field, but I love Geyoro as a midfield engine for France over the next dacade.
  • Nigeria has its usual parade of teenagers, but I would especially look for Rasheedat Ajibade to see time and find some success up front.
  • Norway’s Frida Maanum is an impressive midfield talent, and seems to have earned some trust from the national team, with 20 caps, meaning she has more caps than birthdays.
  • If I had to pick one youth player to breakout in France, it would be Germany’s Giulia Gwinn, who has dominated the youth competitions over the past few years. That said, Germany is–as always–stacked with talent, so I don’t know how much time Gwinn or fellow teens Lena Oberdorf and Klara Bühl will see.
  • South Africa’s Linda Motlhalo is still only 20. Yowzah.
  • Emerging from decades of neglect, the Spanish national team leans toward the younger side. I’ve always been a huge fan of Patricia Guijarro, Aitana Bonmati, and Nahikari Garcia, but 2023 may be their year to shine.
  • Mary Fowler will get a ton of press-and at 16, she should–but Ellie Carpenter, at all of 19, is more likely to make an impact. I am not the only player surprised at the exclusion of Alex Chidiac from the Australia squad.
  • Jamaica is a very hip pick this summer, and they will be led up front by Jody Brown (17) and Bunny Shaw, a veteran at the ripe old age of 22.
  • England has a very strong team, with its core firmly in their prime. This may limit the amount of time Georgia Stanway sees, but she will be around for a long time at this level.
  • 20 year old Erin Cuthbert is probably the key player for Scotland, and it’s exciting to see the national team willing to build around her.
  • Cameroon’s Raïssa Feudjio is still only 23, and a true force in midfield.
  • Canada continues to hand opportunities to youth, with the most exciting of them being Deanne Rose and Jordyn Huitema up front and Jessie Fleming in midfield.
  • Vivianne Miedema has 75 caps at 22 years of age, and she should pair with Jill Roord for Holland for a long, long time.

There are lots of other under-23 players on the rosters, with the usual dearth of information, especially on the non-European sides, and I would expect (like Jiali did in 2015) at least a few of those to impress, as well as a few of these to not see the field and/or be overmatched.

As an example, I am a big fan of Motlhalo from her season with the Dash, but she remains so much slighter of build than most players she faces, and sometimes her skill cannot overcome that difference. I can’t see her, for example, winning many balls from Lindsey Horan.

That feels like plenty for now! Group predictions coming up on Thursday!

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Reading Graphically: Five Graphic Novels & One Comic

Posted on May 31, 2019 by Daniel (@MKNN)

Another interlude between the novels …

Paul Kirchner‘s Hieronymus & Bosch is an amusing distraction, detailing the torments of a medieval ne’er do well (Hieronymus) and his toy duck (Bosch). While some of the inspiration is obvious from the names, there is significant comic inventiveness throughout. This is more a series of comics than it is a novel. Fun.

Renée Nault‘s adaptation of Margaret Atwood‘s The Handmaid’s Tale is gorgeous, and highly successful. The former is a testament to the richness of the painted tableaus and the use of color throughout. The latter speaks to a level of fidelity to the source material that is highly effective: it does–as it must–deviate from Atwood’s novel, but never by so much as to question its status. That is, this is not really an original work, it’s one artist’s translation of a great work into another medium. Still, it’s lovely and a shorter trip than re-reading the original novel.

Tillie Walden is one of the emerging stars of the form, and the attention paid to Spinning and The End of Summer is well deserved. This review covers two of her smaller works: i love this part (2015) and A City Inside (2016). Both are “one-shots:” thin explorations of a single theme or moment. While A City Inside is a strong exploration of the relationship we have to specific places, i love this part is amazing, a poignant and telling story of young love and discovery.

Every few years, a wordless story about dinosaurs emerges. Tadd Galusha‘s Cretaceous (2019) is the latest entry in the genre. It’s solid, and as they all are, well-researched and clearly also intended to increase our understanding of what these creatures were, according to best current research. So, feathers!

Finally, a recommendation for an ongoing comic: Garth Ennis‘ A Walk Through Hell is easily the best new comic I’ve come across in a long, long time. Terrifying, nightmarish, humanly compelling … it is a gripping and emotional roller coaster, and I can’t wait to see what happens next. The first five issues are available in a collection.

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