Us3. Online.

{Previews of this round can be found here and here, along with links to prior writing on this tournament.}

GERMANY v USA

It is so rare for a sporting event to live up to its hype, and such a pleasure when it does.

This was quite a surprise for me. Not because the USA won. While I did not think that would happen, it was certainly possible: it felt like Germany had an edge going into the game, but it was going to be close. The shock, for me, was the manner of victory.

I don’t think Germany has faced a first half like that for years. This was different than their game against France: there, it was speed down the wings, quick strikes that tore open their flanks. Here, though, here it was a constant barrage, a suffocating opponent that would not let them out of their own half of the field for more than a pass or three.

That was the early key for the USA. Yes, the vertical connections between Megan Rapinoe and Meghan Klingenberg on one side and Ali Krieger (who had a very strong game) and Tobin Heath were outstanding, but the key was in the middle of the field, where Morgan Brian and Lauren Holiday were strong and determined, disrupting the German play and turning the slightest of their opposition’s missed touches into opportunities to regain possession for the Americans.

Rapinoe–not exactly known for her defense–even got into the act with at least four first half tackle and steals by my count.

This was largely a product of Jill Ellis‘ decision to field not only a different lineup, but a different formation, abandoning the previously favored 4-2-2 for a 4-3-3. Well, not quite a 4-3-3: the idea was that Brian and Holiday would largely sit in front of the back four, with Holiday slightly further upfield; then Heath and Rapinoe would provide width, with Carli Lloyd given the freedom to roam in the space behind Alex Morgan up top.

It was a brave move, and it paid dividends and, perhaps, quieted some of the critics–including me–who railed against Ellis’ apparent lack of flexibility.

The lack of a second forward came into play on at least two occasions, where Rapinoe and Heath were moments too slow to make their runs off of Morgan’s work up top. The tradeoff was understandable: by playing, essentially, five midfielders, the USA was able to hold possession and always provide a dependable outlet. But that left Morgan a bit isolated, lacking a partner used to operating in tandem with her.

Opportunities still flowed for the Americans: Julie Johnston was unlucky not to score off a corner kick, and then a delicious pass set Morgan free on goal, only to see Nadine Angerer block her shot.

Another difference from their game against France: there, every German attack looked like a scoring opportunity. Here, time and time again, either Brian or Holiday or Johnston was able to remove the danger before it really took hold. This was especially true against Simone Laudehr and Melanie Leupolz, neither of whom had a game consistent with their otherwise excellent performances in Canada.

And yet, after all that … a scoreless game at the half. Dominated by the Americans. But, scoreless.

Germany had their best spell at the start of the second half, using long, cross-field passes to escape the midfield pressure. It worked in two primary ways: not only did it solidify their possession, it also brought their right flank much more into the game, allowing both Alexandra Popp and Tabea Kemme to be much more involved than they were in the first half.

It all unraveled for the USA an hour into the match, when Johnston sort of lost her mind, dragging down Popp from behind well within the penalty box when a seemingly harmless ball took an unexpectedly high bounce. It was a good call, and a foul that clearly deserved the yellow card it received (but not the red called for by some). When Célia Šašić stepped up to take the shot, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Germany would take the lead.

But, the first penalty miss by Germany in the history of their participation in the Women’s World Cup left the match scoreless and only a few moments later, a foul by Annike Krahn that began with contact outside the box led to a penalty kick for the USA. That was a clear mistake by the referee: fouls are committed at the point of initial contact, this was a foul, but never a penalty.

Lloyd stepped up and buried the shot, and the Americans had a lead.

Five minutes later Kelley O’Hara came on to replace Heath, and you could see, with a little lip-reading, her telling her teammates, Yes, we’re playing defensively. Yes.

Luckily, O’Hara refused to follow the direction herself: following a fantastic run from Lloyd, O’Hara beat Kemme to the ball and, well, pretty much karate-kicked it into the back of the net. Lloyd’s run and pass were exceptional, but Kemme has to bear much of the blame, as she lost contact with O’Hara far too easily.

I think Silvia Neid was put in a very hard spot here: Germany had, for the entire tournament, enjoyed freedom on the edges of the field, especially from the combination of Laudehr and Leonie Maier. Here, they were held largely in check (again, other than the first fifteen or so minutes of the second half), and her options were limited. There were calls for Neid to bring on the considerable talents of Dzsenifer Marozsan, but for whom? Exchanging Marozsan for Leupolz is like for like; removing Anja Mittag takes away one of Germany’s primary hopes for a goal; and removing Lena Goessling would have invited the Americans to score again.

If pressed, I would have preferred her to make a change earlier, perhaps bringing in Sara Däbritz or Lena Lotzen as a third attacker, and sacrificing Leupolz. That would eliminate much of the ability to build play through the middle, but longer passes were more successful for them at that point, and another forward might have helped.

At the end of the day, though, this was perhaps what I–and many other commentators–got most wrong about this game: Ellis outcoached Neid, playing the smarter, more effective, tactical game.

In the end, the far better team on the day won the game. A different day, perhaps a different result, but here the Americans played their best game of the tournament and deserved their trip to the finals.

JAPAN v ENGLAND

I can’t resist just cutting to the chase here. Has there been a crueler moment than that served up to Laura Bassett? Ninety-eight out of one hundred times (at least), she clears the ball to safety; one time she sends it back to Karen Bardsley, who clears it. But the one time she slices it into her own net, it has to be at the World Cup? In the semifinal? In extra time? When a ferocious England side has played a great game and perhaps even deserved to move on?

Just unbearably, unfathomably cruel.

But an entire game was played before that, a game that saw England play as intelligently as a side can, making consistently smart choices about when to press high up the pitch (a tactic that continually saw Jill Scott free on the right flank, but struggle to retain possession against the inevitable double team) and when to drop back, trusting the tenacity of Lucy Bronze and Jade Moore on one side and Claire Rafferty and Katie Chapman on the other.

Bronze and Moore were more successful: when Japan had success, it was often through Mizuho Sakaguchi and Nahomi Kawasumi, who were able to expose Rafferty on several occasions.

England surrendered possession to Japan, but never such that they were able to be comfortable: Neither Sakaguchi nor Rumi Utsugi were given enough time on the ball to find the deep runs by their teammates. More importantly, nearly every time a Japanese player received the ball with their back to goal, an English defender was tight on them, preventing them from turning, and forcing the ball back further away from goal.

But it was a dangerous game for England to play: Japan was always only a pass or two away from a clear shot on goal. Still, the manner in which it came was surprising: Saori Ariyoshi basically sprinted straight downfield, running onto a nicely placed long ball sent from well inside their own half. Rafferty was beaten, and brought Ariyoshi down with a push from behind.

Again, this was a refereeing mistake: it was a foul, but contact was initiated outside the box, and it should have resulted in a free kick. Indeed, this was worse than the call in the USA-Germany game, as Ariyoshi had another half-stride before she was inside the box. Instead, Aya Miyama buried the penalty kick and Japan held a 1-0 lead.

Perhaps the call on Steph Houghton was a make-up call, perhaps not: it was a light foul at best, but there was a stamp on Houghton’s foot and a slight push. It was the kind of thing that goes uncalled more often than not. In any case, Fara Williams also buried her chance from the spot, and we went into halftime 1-1.

The second half lagged at points, with neither team really able to hold an advantage. Things changed when Ellen White was brought in at the hour mark. She replaced Jodie Taylor, who had played a strong first half, but had faded slightly. White had an instant impact on the game, as much from a willingness to take shots as an ability to get them on target. A goal for her efforts would not have been undeserved, but at the same time, when she took a curling shot from the edge of the box in the 64th minute, she also had a teammate free on goal that might have been the better choice.

Still, White’s energy put England back on the front foot, and Scott was unlucky when a free header bounded just wide of the post shortly thereafter.

Norio Sasaki responded with his only substitution of the match, bringing in Mana Iwabuchi for Shinobu Ohno. Iwabuchi had a similar effect for her team as White had: instant energy, capped by two dazzling runs into the box, one leading to a cross that went untouched, the other to a shot that was well saved. Iwabuchi and Miyama have a few years to work together, if Japan is able to find a dependable forward to work with them, they will remain near the top of the game for the foreseeable future.

While the introduction of Alex Scott for Bronze was an injury replacement, bringing on Karen Carney for Williams was a sign that Mark Sampson was going for a win, perhaps already anticipating the thirty minutes of extra time.

But, then Kawasumi sent in a lovely bending ball and Bassett reacted just a tad indecisively, and the ball was in …

Cruel.

At the end of the day, Japan did what they’ve done all tournament: played with poise, played consistently but without brilliance, played just well enough to win in a way that could be critiqued as lucky.

THE FINAL. USA v JAPAN

The challenge here is to construct the scenario where Japan wins.

First, discard a notion that it will happen from Ellis making some colossal blunder in tactics and/or lineup selection. Sure, there are better and worse choices out there, but I can’t see that being the hinge on which the game turns–although of course there will be those who insist, no matter what she does, that it was the wrong thing.

There are two primary battles that Japan has to win in order to have a chance.

First, they have to hold the American attack in check. This means that Saki Kumagai and Azusa Iwashimizu have to play a mistake free game. I suspect they will be contending with two forwards: Morgan and Abby Wambach would be my guess. That will be a handful, but Japan’s back line has shown the ability to stay disciplined and compact.

Doing so, though, reduces their movement forward. That should magnify the importance of the Rapinoe v Miyama matchup. Each of these two can turn the game around; I do hope we see them on the same side of the field, where they would face off repeatedly.

Second, watch how Japan copes with the waves of attacking midfielders that the USA employ (Lloyd has been the most successful the last few games, but Heath, Rapinoe, even Holiday all fill this role at times). The challenge is that, if they keep both Utsugi and Sakaguchi back to protect the back four, a huge hole emerges between those two, their two wide midfielders, and their two forwards. That leads to Yuki Ogimi having to drop deep into midfield where she is less comfortable, and removes one of the targets for Miyama and Kawasumi’s crosses.

One way to see this will be to notice where Morgan Brian is positioned: the further upfield she drifts, the more Japan is ceding that midfield area.

And, of course, they want to see as few goals as possible. Japan’s best bet is a 0-0 win via penalty kicks, followed by a game that finishes 1-1 and moves on to PK’s. They have a shot at a 1-0 win. Anything more than that, and their chances of coming out on top drop precipitously.

I think the USA closes out the finals in a match where they lose their streak of not allowing a goal, but are clearly in control. 2-1, perhaps 3-1, USA.

One more note: there is a third place game. I know few people care about it, and even less of the American audience, where a bronze medal is considered a slight disappointment. But the game is there, and it’s always pretty unpredictable. I suspect we’ll see a close game, with Sampson fielding a “first choice” team (although it may be hard to tell, given how much he has altered his lineup game to game) and Neid giving extended minutes to many of her younger players (Lotzen, Däbritz, Jennifer Cramer, Lena Petermann, the teenaged Pauline Bremer). That is what I hope, both for my affinity for tracking young players, but also because I think it has the highest potential for a highly engaging and entertaining match.