Four games remaining …
How We Did
Meh. No exact scores, got Germany – Sweden wrong (along with everyone else), and had basically refused to pick the USA – France match.
England – USA
Jill Ellis‘ highly conservative style, demonstrated from her reluctance to promote youth to her going to a 5 women back line in the game against France, is not my cup of tea. But … it gets things done.
With all of the attention on Megan Rapinoe–and, come on, Queen, as the kids these days say–too little has been paid to Julie Ertz. Ellis’ move to a back 5 is basically telling the fullbacks to stay flat on defense and telling Ertz to slide between the CBs. And it makes the American defense massively challenging to break down: if you try to cross the ball in, Ertz is an extra body to head it away; if you try to push down the wings, the other CBs can safely help the fullbacks, knowing she’s behind them.
And in this upcoming match, she will again be the key player, as the battle between Ertz and Ellen White will go a long way to determining this one. White’s pressing should be less effective against the USA, and England will need more out of both Fran Kirby and Keira Walsh in the midfield offensively.
If you’re rooting for England, your hope rests on the job Kirby and Walsh did on the other side of the ball, effectively controlling Caroline Graham Hansen, which is no mean feat. That, and the fact that Alex Morgan really does seem to have lost a half step, without which she struggles to gain separation from upper tier defenders (sorry about those 5 goals, Thailand). She and Rapinoe and Tobin Heath will be a handful for Steph Houghton and Millie Bright, but I suspect the real threat for the USA will be down the wings, if they can get Crystal Dunn or Mallory Pugh (as a sub, of course) into space.
England’s choice between Alex Greenwood and Demi Stokes will be informative, as Stokes is far better tracking back defensively, while Greenwood offers more going forward. I would start Stokes, and essentially keep 3 back at most times while Lucy Bronze does her thing on the right side. Bronze against Dunn will be a key battle as well.
England’s dominance over Norway was, at least in part, due to a horrible day by the Norwegian captain, Maren Mjelde, usually a stoutly capable defender. Here, sadly, she bears much responsibility for eahc of England’s first 2 goals (on the first especially, as she and Ingrid Moe Wold inexplicably sprinted back to the 6 yard box, despite the English attackers pulling off their runs around the penalty spot).
It is highly unlikely that Becky Sauerbrunn or Abby Dahlkemper make those kind of mistakes. As such, for England to have a chance, someone—Jill Scott, Nikki Parris, Beth Mead–needs to make some magic happen. It’s possible, I just don’t see it happening unless the USA just has a horrid game.
I think England has had a great tournament, and I expect this to be a tough, physical game. But I expect the USA to win, and perhaps win comfortably. Let’s call it 3-2 USA.
Netherlands – Sweden
Well, that was interesting. Germany looked vulnerable all tournament, but they also seemed to be coming into form at the right time, and when Lina Magull was able to strike a great volley home, it looked like all was right with their world.
But Sweden refused to roll over, took advantage of their chances, and held on for dear life at the end to get through. It was impressive, and Sofia Jakobsson picked a great day to have a great game.
And now they face a Dutch team that still looks to be caught in a low gear. So, which way does this go? Either the Netherlands put it all together and–much as I expected them to do against Italy–Vivianne Miedema and Lieke Martens both have strong games on the same day, and the orange wave crests towards the final; or they continue to struggle for dozens of minutes at a time, opening the door for this Swedish side to pull another upset.
As much as I like Stina Blackstenius, as much as the Swedish defense impressed against Germany, I just don’t see it happening for them.
With an eye towards both this game and Germany’s exit, one reason I favor the Netherlands here–and this is something nobody would have said before the tournament–is that I think this Dutch back line is playing better than Germany’s was. I’m just not sold on Marina Hegering and Sara Doorsoun, and while I love Giulia Gwinn, I love her for what she does in the attacking third more than her ability as a fullback. Dominique Bloodworth has been something of a revelation, and Stefanie Van Der Gragt more than solid as her CB partner, and neither Desiree Van Lunteren nor Merel Van Dongen have been particularly exposed down the flanks.
That foursome, protected by the still pretty marvelous Danielle Van De Donk will, I think, stifle Sweden in this game.
Netherlands, 2-1.