I’ve been oddly reticent about writing up a preview of this one.
I suspect it’s because I will be rooting for the Orange, without thinking they have much of a chance at all against the USA.
Soccer analytics still feels like they are in their infancy–what should be counted, how it should be counted, basic things like that are still being worked out. But there are some useful notions that are emerging that may help in watching the final tomorrow. One of which is paying attention to passes that start outside the 18 yard box and are successfully completed inside of it.
For the Netherlands to have much of a chance, they need to be able to successfully string together passes like that with Vivianne Miedema on the end of them. Miedema is unlikely to beat the American back line for pace, but she is a terror with the ball at her feet, and if she can receive the ball in deep positions, if she can receive it while moving towards goal, then maybe, just maybe, she can slip in a goal or 2.
The problem is it’s not likely to be enough: I have been impressed by the Dutch defense, but they’ve not faced an attack like the American front line. Even if Megan Rapinoe continues to be sidelined, the ability of the Americans to attack in waves remains spectacularly impressive. Tobin Heath driving to the endline, the other forwards flowing in behind them, with Alex Morgan still being incredibly dangerous if she finds space, and a trio of midfielders arriving at the edge of the box in support … it’s a lot, and no matter how good Sari van Veenendaal has looked in a few games here, she’s unlikely to keep them at bay for 90 minutes. Or even 45.
The X-Factor, if there is one, is the Dutch attack on the right. Both Lineth Beerensteyn and Shanice van de Sanden have the ability to get behind any back line in the world. But they also have a tendency to lose the ball with hard first touches, and both Crystal Dunn and Kelley O’Hara have the speed to contain them and the quickness to pounce on the missed touches.
Alright, this is quite a reach, but here’s the true wildcard: it is possible that Dutch head coach Sarina Wiegman comes up with a tactical surprise against the USA. An overloaded midfield, playing 3 at the back, sliding Lieke Martens up to a false 9. Something that would require Jill Ellis to respond. She’s not terribly at responding to tactical surprises, but the team has such depth and talent, it can usually cover for her. And, or course, anything Wiegman does will also expose a weak spot the Americans could take advantage of, regardless of what Ellis does or doesn’t do.
So, yeah. That’s not much.
Now, from the other perspective, it’s just a triumphant confirmation. And it’s true: the USA remains the best team in the world, and the game tomorrow should put an exclamation point on this generation of players.
And I’m happy for them: Alex Morgan was devastating for many, many years; Megan Rapinoe and Tobin Heath are nearly unique players in the American game; and Becky Sauerbrunn may be the most underrated player with 150+ caps.
It is, though, unlikely to be this easy in 4 years time. We should all hope that is the case, by the way: the best thing possible for the game is for the gap between the champions and the rest to narrow.
USA, 3-1.