A note on VAR to open. I’m a fan, for sure–getting calls right strikes me as generally important–but there are two points that, I think, need to be addressed:
- First, if you look for a penalty, you will usually find one. It’s a little like holding in American football. So there needs to be some way of allowing the system to adjust for real-time perception for referees, especially on handballs. It may be just that we need to get through a year of an obscenely high number of penalties while defenders adjust.
- Second, the rule on GK’s coming off the line needs some work. Every GK ever does it, and in fact is trained to do it (you’re taught to explode off the line at an angle, not directly sideways). When it’s egregious, it’s a clear issue; things like Sydney Schneider‘s save really should, imo, stand.
Anyhow, onto the games themselves.
#GROUP A
Nothing surprising here. France is clearly the best team, Norway has the inside track on 2nd place. Nigeria needs a tie against France to have a decent shot at progressing, which puts my prediction of them making it through at risk, although it’s possible 3 points would be enough if they only lose by a single goal.
An upset win over Norway by South Korea would really complicate things, so part of me will be rooting for that.
#GROUP B
Spain – China should be a very good game: China has been better than I thought they would be, but I’m still backing Spain to win that game, and perhaps win comfortably. The gap between Spain and Germany is closer than many had anticipated, but it’s still there.
If Spain does win, China’s progression gets very perilous, as they will have 3 points and a negative goal differential.
I’ll stick with Germany and Spain getting through.
#GROUP C
Wheeeee! Italy‘s win over Australia was the shock of the 1st round, Brazil‘s giving Australia all they could handle for a half was one of the surprises of the 2nd (remarkable how, if you take Marta and Formiga off–even at their combined age of several centuries–the team gets weaker).
Australia needs to pour it on against Jamaica, which is certainly quite a possibility. At the same time, while Alanna Kennedy remains magnificent, Bunny Shaw could easily find space behind the Aussie defense, keeping that game close. Still, if Australia wins, period, they should be through (and, in fact, a tie against Jamaica could see them squeak through as well).
Brazil – Italy is a total crap shoot: does Italy rest their best players? Who shows up for Brazil? Does Andressinha finally get let out of the doghouse? There is a chance for 3 teams to finish with 6 points each in this group, which is quite rare.
#GROUP D
Scotland is the disappointment of the tournament for me. Turns out, you need more than Erin Cuthbert and an aging Kim Little at this level …
Argentina–who have not impressed me terribly despite some stout defending and GK work–have an outside shot at progressing. If they beat Scotland, they should make it to the round of 16.
The Japan – England game should be most interesting solely for who plays: looking forward to England resting some players, allowing us to enjoy us some Rachel Daly.
#GROUP E
I think it was important for the Dutch to show up strong against Cameroon, and they–and especially Vivianne Miedema–certainly did. Miedema is a bit of a favorite, not least of all for the goofiness that lets a pale imitation of 7 year old’s somersault be her goal celebration. It’s easy to forget that she’s only 22, and already has 60 goals (in 77 appearances) for the national team: if anyone is shaping up to challenge Abby Wambach‘s (and soon to be Christine Sinclair‘s) record, it’s her.
It’s going to be hard for either Cameroon or New Zealand to progress: they will need both a win and a few goals to boot.
#GROUP F
One of my favorite moments so far? The Thailand coach struggling not to cry when her team scored against Sweden.
I really think this group does no favors for the USA: they won’t play a difficult, meaningful match until the round of 16, where they seem likely (if I am reading the permutations correctly) to hit Spain.