WWC2015: Round of 16 Previews

{Discussions of the first match days, the second match days, and a final overview of the group stage preceded this.}

While I’ve succumbed to the prediction bug below, I’m more interested in thinking about what the key components of each contest are. Especially in the Key Players sections, the goal is to help identify what to pay attention to in each game, sort of a viewer’s guide. We’ll see … football can be a fickle game.

GERMANY v SWEDEN

This is a nice outcome from the imbalanced groups: anticipating an easy road, Germany ends up facing a potentially very strong opponent in Sweden. Germany are most likely the best team in the world right now, so they win just by playing like they can.

Here’s how Sweden wins: either they bunker up and get through 120 minutes at 0-0 or 1-1 and survive on PK’s or they snatch a goal on a counter-attack or a wonderstrike (like Sofia Jakobsson did here against Australia) and the Germans have a bad day.

Neither of those are particularly likely, and as Sweden is a notch below Norway, I would see this being a 2-0 or 3-0 win for Germany.

Key Players for Sweden

Lotta Schelin (F) and Hedvig Lindahl (GK). Schelin has a long pedigree of success, and if she can drag another 90 minutes of greatness–or, actually, the right 90 seconds–that could provide the difference for Sweden. Lindahl is likely to be tested all day: the Germans shoot and shoot often, and Lindahl has been quite good throughout the group stage.

Key Players for Germany

Melanie Leupolz (M), Leonie Meier (D), and Celia Sasic (F). Leupolz makes the German engine run, and if she can control the pace and pattern of the game–when to maintain possession, when to take risks going forward–Sweden is in for a long game. Meier offers the most going forward of the German defenders, and since I anticipate most of the game to be played in the Swedish half, she could be a difference-maker, both from her service from the right flank and her shots from distance. While Anja Mittag has more goals, it is Sasic that I think may have the creativity to unravel the Swedish defense: she may not score, but watch the impact of her runs, of the Swedish backline needing to always be aware of where she is.

CHINA v CAMEROON

Easily my most anticipated matchup of the round. I’m an unabashed fan of this Cameroon side and will be wearing my Indomitable Lion(ess) jersey (yeah, I do have one, although it is desperately in need of replacement). Even taking off that hat, though, this could be a great game. We’ll learn a ton here about China: if they can shut down the Cameroonian attack, they will be the first team to do so.

But I think Gaelle Enganamouit rebounds from her weakest game of the tournament, and Cameroon pushes China to the limit.

My crystal ball says the final score is 3-2, but it refuses to say which way. I know which I’ll be rooting for.

Key Players for Cameroon

Raissa Feudjio (M) and Annete Ngo Ndom (GK). The obvious choices are Enganamouit and Gabrielle Onguene, but I think watching Feudjio and Ngo Ndom will reveal more about how the game is going: if Feudjio is breaking up the Chinese attack and winning the battle of midfield, and if Ngo Ndom is composed in goal (something that has occasionally eluded her), Cameroon will have a good day.

Key Players for China

Li Donga (D) and Zhao Rong (D). The partnership of Li and Zhao will go a long way to determining China’s success. A slower paced, more grinding game favors the Chinese, and the steady play of the two defenders will determine to what degree that is possible against the Cameroonian attack. Clearly, someone has to score for China as well, but it’s not clear where that is going to come from.

FRANCE v KOREA

I think this is a fortuitous matchup for France, even if the “good” Korea of their second half showing against Spain shows up. Simply, Laura Georges and Windie Renard in back are just better than the Spanish backline the Korean Republic exposed, and I don’t see the Korean defense containing Eugenie Le Sommer for 90 minutes. 2-0 France.

Key Players for France

Jessica Houara (D) and Laure Boulleau (D). Korea seems to depend on flank play to generate their offense, largely through crosses into the box–indeed, they won against Spain thanks to a cross that was mishit enough that it turned into a goal. As such, Houara and Boulleau’s ability to defend on the outside will be a key, as will the speed with which they can transition from defending to launching an attack of their own.

Key Players for the Korean Republic

Jeon Gaeul (M) and Kim Jungmi (GK). Jeon has been impressive in midfield for her country, industrious and creative, and she will need to put in a big game on both sides of the ball if they are to impress here. Jungmi is long and strong, and while she spills the ball a little often, it never seems to go very far. France will test her.

BRAZIL v AUSTRALIA

I think this is a potentially yummy matchup, but the key word is potentially. The argument for Australia is that Brazil has really yet to be tested and, when faced the waves of attack that Australia can provide, the Brazilian defense can be exposed. Maybe.

The problem is that we have some evidence the opposite is true as well: when faced with a strong attacking team, Australia lost 3-1 to the USA. But if you look more closely, the source of the threat is different. For Brazil, Marta, Formiga, and Andressa form a fantastic spine, but the outside players have yet to really impress. And, even if one did, they aren’t going to suddenly turn into Megan Rapinoe.

So … I may be putting too much faith in the continued brilliance of Lisa De Vanna, but I put this down to 2-2 and the coin-flip of penalties.

Key players for Brazil

Luciana (GK), Marta (M), and Tamires (D). Luciana can be shaky in goal, and needs to be solid, not only in this game, but for the rest of Brazil’s contests in the tournament. Marta still has the ability to dominate a game: the key here is that, if she doesn’t, who steps up for Brazil? Finally, Tamires is the only field player to have played every minute of their games so far, and her ability to organize and anchor their defense will be crucial against Australia.

Key players for Australia

Elise Kellond-Knight (D) and Caitlin Foord (F). Foord started her career as a fullback, and her ability to contribute on both sides of the ball will be important, but Australia’s defense starts with Kellond-Knight. If they can be solid at the back, the mixture of De Vanna, Kyah Simon, and Samantha Kerr will pose danger going the other way.

CANADA v SWITZERLAND

Honestly, I don’t have a lot to say about this one. It is two teams in red and white, so there’s that. Neither have performed particularly well, either could potentially make the semifinals. I think Switzerland has been a shade less impressive, so I’ll go with a Canada team inspired by the home crowd, 2-1.

Key players for Canada

Erin McLeod (GK) and Allysha Chapman (D). I’ve already written about Kadeisha Buchanan‘s impressive play and the notion that Christine Sinclair may be losing the race with time. Either could prove me wrong decisively: the one thing Buchanan lacks is the calm and tactical understanding that comes with experience, and Sinclair could summon up a match from her youth. But I’m going with McLeod in goal and Chapman on the flanks here: McLeod is usually fantastic and occasionally loses her mind: in a tight game, Canada can’t afford her to do that. Chapman has been as impressive as any fullback in the tournament, and if that carries forward, may provide a real edge for Canada on her side of the field.

Key players for Switzerland

Ana Maria Crnogorcevic (M) and Lia Waelti (M). I think the connection between these two players is the engine for Switzerland: if they work well together, the pressure is reduced on the back for, and chances are created for the more attacking players. I would add Eseosa Aigbogun (F) as a wildcard: she looks raw, but very talented, and capable of coming up with a goal.

USA v COLOMBIA

This works out very well for the USA, who should get by without a lot of struggle. Much hinges on how Jill Ellis sees the game: she could very well use it to give some of the second string field time: if you see Tobin Heath, Amy Rodriguez, and Sydney Leroux in the starting eleven, you’ll know that’s where she’s headed.

Note that I would rather see Heath and Leroux start in most cases: my preferred front six would be Heath, Carli Lloyd, Morgan Brian, Megan Rapinoe, Alex Morgan, and Leroux, I think (I know that ignores a traditional holding midfielder. Against anyone except perhaps Germany, I’m OK with that). The choice between Leroux and Abby Wambach is a coin-flip; in either case, I would want them prepared to go all out for sixty minutes, and then have the other come in to close the game: whether you go from physical presence/traditional striker play (Wambach) to the speed and creativity of Leroux or vice-versa can be argued either way.

4-0 USA. Be prepared for the media storm after this game about the team being “back.” Discount it: the gulf in class in this game is larger than any other round of sixteen matchup.

Key players for USA

Without knowing the lineups, it’s hard, but I think the USA scores, no matter what. So I’ll go with Julie Johnston (D) here, just because someone has to make sure the defense doesn’t give up a cheap goal.

Key players for Colombia

It’s going to be all about the back line, so we’ll include them all: Sandra Sepulveda (GK), Natalia Gaitan (D), Carolina Arias (D), Nataly Arias (D), and Angela Clavijo (D). They will be under constant pressure all day, and will need to provide the performances of their lives to give Colombia a chance. I’ve been impressed with Sepulveda so far, although she also seems to teeter permanently on the edge of being injured. You’ll hear a lot of talk about Lady Andrade (F), but while she is vital to Colombia scoring, if the back line is merely good and Andrade has a great day, Colombia still lose 4-2.

NORWAY v ENGLAND

This should be a very tightly contested game. It also could be incredibly boring for the casual viewer, as both teams are likely to focus on defensively responsible tactics, counter attacks, and the vague hopes of a moment of brilliance from some very capable players.

Norway is tough and strong. And, very funny. And their best attacker, Ada Hegerberg, is in fine form and, more importantly, able to be a difference-maker on her own. This last point, I think, gives them the edge: Fran Kirby and Karen Carney need combination play to be most effective, and that may be hard to generate against Norway’s defense.

2-1 Norway.

Key players for Norway

Hegerberg first and last. But, Lene Mykjåland (M) is the fulcrum around which the team turns, and paying attention to her effectiveness in midfield should give a good indication of the Norwegian fortunes on the day.

Key players for England

Jill Scott (M) and Eniola Aluko (F). Look, I don’t even know if either of these players will see the field (both were given England’s last game off, and since that was pretty much a “must win,” that may not bode well for their time here). But Scott and Aluko (although she hasn’t shown it yet) are the two players able to pull a moment of brilliance out of nothing on this England team and, in the end, I think that is what will be needed to beat the stout Norway defense.

JAPAN v NETHERLANDS

The final game could also be one of the better contests of the round. The only way I see this game being a blowout is if the long-rumored explosion of the Dutch side finally occurs. Otherwise–and the most likely scenario–is a tight affair that could swing either way. Japan looks very smooth, and seems to usually do just enough to get by. But if you look at their games, they haven’t been terribly impressive: beating Ecuador by one goal isn’t a great result and they were lucky not to drop points against Cameroon.

So that gives the Dutch more than a puncher’s chance in this match. The defensive partnership between Stefanie van der Gragt and Mandy van den Berg looks solid, and it seems improbable that Vivianne Miedema and Lieke Martens are kept under wraps for yet another game (ignoring for the moment Martens’ fantastic game one strike). I think they come through, 2-1 to the Netherlands.

Key players for Japan

As always, Aya Miyama (M) makes the team go, but I would also pay close attention to Aya Sameshima (D), whose influence at the back could be tested by the Dutch attack.

Key players for Holland

Sherida Spitse (M) and Danielle van de Donk (M) don’t get the glory of the forwards, but without them, the Dutch engine grinds to a halt. The matchup between Miyama and Spitse should be especially telling, and van de Donk seems to always be just on the edge of providing the right touch to connect with the three attackers: if she can finally put it all together, the Dutch should do well.