{The other side of the bracket can be found here.}
AUSTRALIA v JAPAN
This was a tense game, with Australia’s speed always looking threatening in spite of the technical skill of the Japanese, which allowed them to dominate not just possession, but meaningful possession as well (knocking the ball around the back line under no pressure isn’t very meaningful overall; controlling the distance between midfield and your opponent’s penalty box is).
The star performers were the three more forward midfielders for Japan: Nahomi Kawasumi, Rumi Utsugi, and the incomparable Aya Miyama. They constantly, relentlessly, probed the Australian defense and Japan’s ability to change the pace of the game as they moved from possession to attack hinged on their skills at reading the game and choosing when to play in short, controlled triangles and when to send raking diagonal balls across the field.
The common denominator here for Japan is their impressive first touch: you can try to play their style all you want, but if you can’t bring the ball under control nearly immediately, it will all be for naught.
Australia defended admirably, with especially strong games from Elise Kellond-Knight and Alanna Kennedy, but they were unable to find the single moment to force a score. Their front three of Samantha Kerr, Kyah Simon, and Lisa De Vanna all had half-chances, but were never able to find space behind the Japanese defense with a teammate in strong support.
As the game wore on, and especially for the last quarter of the second half, the Australian defense became a bit shakier. It’s hard work chasing the ball against a team that moves it precisely and quickly, and it was only luck that kept out Miyama’s heel-flick midway through the second half.
Mana Iwabuchi–the youngest player on the Japanese roster and the most likely heir to the mantle of Best Japanese Player as Miyama matures–was only on the field for fifteen minutes before the ball fell to her at the far post. The finish was simple, and the only question was if she were onsides (she was), and the victory was sealed.
This was another narrow win for Japan, but it was also their best game of the tournament, and the defending champions are rounding into form at the right time.
ENGLAND v CANADA
This is a hard game to evaluate. Canada had the better performance: more of the ball, more shots, fewer fouls. But the teams were virtually identical in shots on target, and at the end of it all, England was luckier, which counts for something.
In this case, it counted for Lucy Bronze‘s looping header, which grazed the underside of the bar at exactly the right angle to drop inside the goal. All credit to Bronze, but that shot goes wrong as often as it goes right: a trifle less arc, and Erin McLeod tips it over; a trifle too high and it spins harmlessly over the crossbar; a trifle too low and it bounces back into the field of play.
But that put England up by two goals, a hill that proved just too steep for Canada to climb, although Christine Sinclair‘s composed put-back to pull the score to 2-1 was well taken. And, a little heartwarming: it was good to see even the reduced Sinclair of this World Cup get on the scoresheet from the run of play.
What, you say? I missed something? England’s first goal? Oh. That. Um … well, Lauren Sesselmann has just had a brutal World Cup. She’s been unlucky and she’s been bad, and in some games, she’s been both. Here, her giveaway was atrocious, and Jodie Taylor pounced on it and finished with ease.
There remains some doubt about McLeod’s positioning on that first goal: it slid under her from a long way out. But overall the Canadian keeper was her usual commanding presence, and Kadeisha Buchanan was her dependable self as well, including a moment at the tail end of the game where it seemed she might be part of a last-ditch push to tie the score.
Mention should be made of Siobhan Chamberlain, who saw her first minutes at any of her three World Cups when Karen Bardsley was forced off with an injury to her eye. While Canada did not do enough to test Chamberlain, she did everything asked of her with poise, not the easiest thing when you’re given thirty seconds to warm up and get on the pitch with a spot in the semifinals on the line.
At the end, though, credit needs to go to England’s back five, with Fara Williams‘ contributions from midfield as important as Claire Rafferty, Laura Bassett, Steph Houghton, and Bronze across their back line. The attack was irregular: Jill Scott faded from the game, and Taylor and Karen Carney were occasionally effective and occasionally invisible.
That England won is quite impressive; the manner of the victory less so, which is something of a worry as the team moves on.
SEMIFINAL #2 – JAPAN v ENGLAND
This one has a much clearer favorite: Japan will be the favorite, and should win the contest. As such, we’ll be looking (again phase by phase) at the keys that could plausibly secure an England victory.
Interior Defense v Central Attackers
This game will prove the toughest test for Bassett and Houghton yet: they will need to attentive and nimble to track the movement of Yuki Ogimi and Shinobu Ohno and, perhaps more importantly, all four defenders plus Williams will have to be on their toes against the favored give-and-go’s of the Japanese attackers.
Most of the chances created by Japan have been from two to three combinations of six to twelve yard runs and overlaps. It takes a lot of precision from the attacking team, but it also requires constant communication and attention from the defense. The challenge is as much mental as it is physical.
On the other side, the Japanese back line can be opened up, but it takes finding a mismatch and exploiting it. As such, the position Katie Chapman played against Canada–the attacker just behind the two forwards–will be key for England.
I don’t know what I would do if I were Mark Sampson: I would want the craft of Fran Kirby in the game, and would juggle my front three to accommodate her. But I’m not sure at whose expense: you can’t lean too far to the attacking side against the Japanese, or they will easily exploit the space you leave behind.
The Flanks
There is one great matchup here that will see Bronze against Miyama for much of the game. Bronze has gotten acclaim for her goals, but she first caught my eye with the strength and pace of her defending, something that will be well tested here.
This is another possible point of creativity by Sampson, who has shown a willingness to couple Williams with a variety of partners in midfield. My guess is that Scott gets the start here as well, but I couldn’t guess at which side: an argument could be made that her athleticism would help against Miyama; a counter that she is needed on the other side of the field to provide pressure, keeping Saori Ariyoshi more defensively responsible.
The Midfield
England likes to play with three midfielders, Japan, two. So this is another point of intrigue for the match. If the tactics remain consistent, England has the potential to control the center of the pitch. The problem, of course, is that if they pull in, they are inviting Miyama and Kawasumi to control the game from out wide.
It’s a fine balance: good play from the central trio for England (whomever they are) could overwhelm Utsugi and Mizuho Sakaguchi; but loose play there will merely further Japan’s comfort in and dominance of possession. Watch this space carefully.
The Goalkeepers
If Bardsley plays (and, of course, is healthy), England have an advantage here. Ayumi Kaihori has been adequate at best (including the total howler against the Dutch), but Chamberlain is an unknown quantity.
The Coaches
Sampson is clearly the more adventurous of the two coaches: while his defense has been steady, the rest of his lineup has changed each and every game. But, has it worked? Well … England has won, so in that sense, yes, yes it has. But Sampson has been more effective with his in-game adjustments than his shifting starting lineups (indeed, better tactics from the start would, of course, reduce the need for in-game adjustments).
Still, I would rather have a coach who is good at adjusting at halftime than one who is not, and I have yet to see much from Norio Sasaki as an in-game manager: indeed, some of his games have called out for a shift in tactics (think the need for more attack against Ecuador, the way the games against Cameroon and even the Netherlands remained in question when they should have been well decided).
The Bottom Line
Japan is beatable. Don’t get me wrong: they are quite beatable. But I don’t see England as pulling it off, not without everything going exactly right. And how often does that happen? Japan will make the game closer than it should be, but they will prevail.