WWC2015: Quarterfinals One & Two & Preview of the First Semifinal

{Previews of this round here, which links to prior writeups as well. Will have the second two quarters and the second semifinal up sometime tomorrow.}

GERMANY v FRANCE

This game, I believe, lived up to its billing and, in the end, the result might even be considered a bit cruel for France, who dominated the first half hour, with Elodie Thomis tearing apart the German left wing again and again. But for all of Thomis’ speed, her crosses were consistently a little off, not quite finding their mark, and France was unable to capitalize.

The true story of the first half, however, was not Thomis, but rather Louisa Necib, who was more influential in the opening half than she had been all tournament. Time and time again, she would make herself an outlet for her defenders, and then immediately either move the ball to the far flank for Thomis or work short passes with Amandine Henry and Camille Abily to retain possession.

Necib was simply spectacular.

The Germans were the Germans: every opportunity they had was dangerous, and the game always felt like it could swing quite easily to a 1-0 lead against the run of play, from Célia Šašić‘s looping header to the drive from distance by Leonie Maier.

But the French defense held, and the first half remained scoreless, something the French would ultimately rue.

The second half was even tighter: the introduction of Dzsenifer Marozsan for Anja Mittag was decried by the announcers, but it worked as intended from the German perspective: the extra midfielder allowed Germany more possession, calmed them down in the middle of the pitch, and gave their defense additional (and much-needed) structure. Necib would get the ball in the same position, but now Melanie Leupolz and Lena Goessling had a third teammate to help them, and both the outlets to Thomis and to Henry and Abily were much, much more difficult.

Still, even though her influence was reduced in the second half and even though the shot was a bit fortunate in its deflection, Necib unquestioningly deserved her goal and even the stoutest of German supporter would have to admit France deserved the lead.

And after a few nervous moments, it looked for all the world like they would see the game out. But a marginal (yet, ultimately correct) call against Amel Majri gave Šašić a penalty kick, which she took with some venom to level the game. The play-by-play announcer on Fox was fairly obsessed with making Majri–in for the injured Laure Boulleau–the goat of the game, but the truth is that she had a very good game on France’s left side, defending well and contributing to the attack throughout, and the handball was as unintentional as it was unfortunate.

The announcers could do little more than complain about Gaetane Thiney‘s being called on for a surprisingly ineffective Eugenie Le Sommer, and then again about Kheira Hamraoui‘s taking the place of Marie Laure Delie, which was a shame, as Thiney was effective on the wing for her half hour, and Hamraoui fought through what looked to be a shattered nose to play extremely well over the end of the game, making at least three clearances and taking a couple well-struck shots at the end.

Both substitutes changed the French tactical structure, but still they could not score and at that point, it certainly looked like extra time–and more penalties–were in the future, but France had one more surprise up their sleeve: a strong, gritty, and determined run by Claire Lavogez (a run that was, in essence, the exact opposite of her earlier blatant dive) set Thiney free with a gaping goal, but she could not connect cleanly.

The shootout had its moments of drama: Marozan limping up to take hers on a rough and painful ankle, and finally Lavogez being unable to squeeze the ball under Nadine Angerer. And so, Gary Lineker‘s famous quote holds true, although he had both the gender and the time wrong:

Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.

USA v CHINA

Ah, the mystery that is Amy Rodriguez. One of my long-standing disappointments in American soccer (at all levels, from the very early competitive youth teams up) is an unassailable faith in speed. Amy Rodriguez is fast. She is very fast. Composed when set free on a gorgeous pass from Carli Lloyd just a few minutes in? Able to play out of trouble when trapped in the corner? Well, she’s fast.

But, you know what? So is Sydney Leroux …

But that’s nitpicking. Jill Ellis‘ lineup choices were all at least vaguely justifiable, and the USA dominated the match from the opening kickoff.

The announcers praised Rodriguez again and again, to the point that I wondered what game they were watching: yes, her effort was fantastic, and her willingness to apply pressure first-rate. But she gave the ball away again and again, rarely kept possession, and was unable to connect or combine with the other attacking players.

So, a mixed bag. I do appreciate what she brought to the game, and if she converted that opening chance, yes, all else would have been forgiven. But she didn’t, and I worry that now the media will start to press for her to start against the Germans, again blathering about pure speed.

Back to this game. After three matches where play was focused down the left flank, along a Meghan Klingenberg to Megan Rapinoe axis, here for most of the opening half, it was all on the right side, with Ali Krieger and Kelley O’Hara connecting well and providing a constant supply of service for Rodriguez.

Again, the USA was the clearly better team, but again they struggled to find the back of the net, and while doubts were right to creep in, once Lloyd nodded the ball under a diving Fei Wang in the Chinese goal, the result was never really threatened. Wang had a solid game for China, as did Li Dongna, who has had a good tournament anchoring a young back line. But China’s youth and inexperience showed, and ultimately, the truth is the rebuilding of their program has still left them well behind the top tier of teams globally.

It’s just hard to figure this USA team out: on the one hand, the defense looks solid, dominant even, and on the other, it’s hard to praise a team that only scores one against a China team that looked anything but organized on defense. But a team that can choose from Leroux, Alex Morgan (who has looked better each game), Abby Wambach, and, yes, Rodriguez has no lack for potential firepower. But it’s time to move from potential to kinetic, especially given their next opponents.

SEMIFINAL #1 – GERMANY v USA

Another potentially fantastic game. These two are virtually universally acclaimed as the best two teams in the world and, as such, if this game is played 100 times, it is doubtful that one team wins even as many as 60 of the matches. It’s impossible to predict teams this close: it can all come down to a mixture of who is in the best form on the day, who gets lucky with a bounce or a deflection, and who is best able to capitalize on small errors by the opposition.

Let’s take this one phase by phase.

Interior Defense v Central Attackers

Of course, a lot of this has to do with who Ellis decides should play, but assuming the USA goes back to a Wambach and Morgan pairing, we have the two of them against Annike Krahn and Saskia Bartusiak (who returns from yellow card banishment). Krahn and Bartusiak have been solid all tournament, but nothing more than that, and they are certainly susceptible to pace. Wambach poses a more physical threat than they’ve seen so far and Morgan has the ability to get behind either German defender.

On the other side, I think it is much closer. Julie Johnston and Becky Sauerbrunn have been unbeatable but this will be the first time they really face a scoring duo that is equally skilled, and I think that Mittag’s tendency to sit behind Šašić will cause them some problems. If Johnston (the quicker of the two, and the more likely to provide pressure) loses Mittag, or gets turned by her, the USA could be in trouble.

For both sides, either a fullback or a midfielder will have to drop back to help against the second threat: for the USA, that means, most likely, either Krieger or Klingenberg has to check their attacking tendencies, with Krieger being the most likely option. Germany has a more traditional response, where Goessling will more naturally hold back, helping Krahn and Bartusiak in the middle.

The Flanks

How yummy is this? I would expect the Maier – Simone Laudehr side, which matches up with Klingenberg and Rapinoe (most likely) to be highly productive for both sides, as neither duo will be willing to hold back their attacking instincts, potentially creating an awful lot of space behind them.

On the other side, I would see both Krieger and Tobin Heath being more responsible, to the point where Heath may shadow Alexandra Popp, leaving Krieger free to shade more centrally. I have not been terribly impressed with Tabea Kemme, and if she can perform better going forward, that could be huge for the Germans.

Still, teams that have keyed on Rapinoe have been unable to stop her: if Maier and Laudehr aren’t careful, Rapinoe could, yet again, be a difference maker.

The Midfield

I don’t have much of a sense for how Germany will line up here. My guess is it will remain Melanie Leupolz and Goessling, matching up with Lloyd and Lauren Holiday and, again, it’s really even between the two teams. Goessling is the most disciplined of the four players, and I think her work on defense will neutralize a lot of Lloyd’s late runs into the box. But, while I think Leupolz is an emerging star, is she really better at this point of her career than Holiday? Doubtful.

The Goalkeepers

Hope Solo has yet to really be tested this World Cup, but there’s nothing to indicate she isn’t still in the argument for the best goalkeeper in the women’s game, period. Angerer, though, looks to have slowed, and while still more than competent, has probably dropped out of that conversation. Both keepers will make the routine saves, and both are experienced enough to be well positioned for the difficult ones, but Solo remains more acrobatic and more able to pull off the jaw-dropping.

The Coaches

Neither have impressed me with their in-game choices, although Silvia Neid seems more willing to make changes to her tactical approach mid-game than Ellis is (see Marorzan’s substitution against France). There is little benefit to having the deepest squad in the tournament if you only use it when forced to by suspensions: the fact that Heather O’Reilly has not been turned to and that Christen Press–despite subpar appearances–remains clearly ahead of Leroux in Ellis’ pecking order does little to dispel the notion that she is relatively inflexible in her approach.

This game could turn on such adjustments, and I think Neid is both more willing to make them and, more importantly, better at making them.

The Bottom Line

I think this one is even across the board. I expect to see goals, and would not be shocked at PK’s after a 2-2 game, something like that. Which means anything from 1-0 to 3-1 feels possible.

I think Lineker is proven right again, and as much as I want the USA to break out of their attacking funk and pull another win out, I don’t think they’ll be able to here. Germany wins this game, which means they will win the whole thing.