{Written after the completion of Group Play. Thoughts on the opening games here; second games here. Will have a preview of the Round of 16 sometime after this.}
Warning: This is a long post, as it turned into more of a summary of the overall group play than just the final game. I had more thoughts than I thought I did and, you know, there are six groups.
Tournaments that include group play tend to follow an always-unique-but-somewhat-predictable script: interesting storylines emerge, some teams surprise early, and at the end of the day, regression to the mean is very hard to overcome, and quality tends to separate towards both the top and bottom.
I’m not saying this WWC has been predictable in its specifics–far form it–but overall the “right” teams are progressing.
GROUP A
Maybe the Dutch are better at math than the rest of us: they sure celebrated their tie with Canada as if they knew progress was assured. In the end, the one team that surpassed expectations–New Zealand–is the one team going home. Canada, China, and Holland all come out of the group still searching for their best form.
If any of those three teams are going to progress past the next round, someone needs to really catch fire. Wang Lisi has been getting the attention for China, but Tang Jiali has been more impressive for me; we’re still waiting for Christine Sinclair to really make an appearance (but the inevitable ravages of time may preclude that entirely); and while Lieke Martens has been fantastic at points, the much-ballyhooed 3M strike force of her, Vivianne Miedema, and Manon Melis has yet to really sparkle.
That may be a reflection of good defense as well, of course: Canada will continue to be hard to break down, as Kadeisha Buchanan is emerging as a potential superstar (yes, she makes some mistakes: she’s nineteen) and I’ve been very, very pleasantly surprised by Allysha Chapman‘s work on the wings. China’s been a bit more suspect defensively, and the Dutch are suffering from some potentially significant injuries along their back line.
In the end, though, I think most people thought three teams (and, probably, these three) would go from Group A, with Canada topping the list.
GROUP B
Again, very few surprises, other than I’m pretty sure nobody thought the best goal (This should take you to 1:40 of the highlights) from this group would come from 4’7″ (on a good day) Ange N’Guessan from Côte D’Ivoire.
We know very little about Norway and Germany: they are several levels of class better than the other two teams in the group, and predictably dominated them, distorting all sorts of statistics (goals is the obvious, but also things that relate to minutes played and defensive evaluation as well).
They most important result–by far–is the 1-1 draw between the top teams: Germany will be disappointed with that game; Norway will see it as proof they can contend for the title. And, if Ada Hegerberg keeps on, perhaps they can.
GROUP C
Cameroon (along with Colombia below) are quickly becoming the darlings of the World Cup (although, if I hear more announcers gushing about the athleticism and physicality of the Cameroonian players without recognizing their technical skills and work rate, I will be … um … predictably disappointed by the use of lazy and ultimately racist stereotypes in the sports media).
Cameroon suffers from some indications of the classic broken team, where a strong defensive line and a strong attacking line lack cohesion between them. In their case, I don’t think it’s a case of ability, but rather tactical discipline: Raissa Feudjio sits in front of the back four quite well (and their tackling–especially captain Christine Manie–has been superlative), but the other midfielders get drawn too far upfield in attack, leaving the team vulnerable to the counter.
But, oh that attack … If you told me that Gaelle Enganamouit would have an off-day, I would give them no chance against Switzerland. But Gabrielle Onguene was utterly magnificent in that game, tireless and aggressive and routinely beating and holding off defenders that were significantly larger than her. It was, for me, the single best performance of the tournament.
Japan wins the group with 9 points and Aya Miyama being a predictable pleasure to watch, but were less than dominant throughout (beating Ecuador by a single goal is not a good result for a team with championship pretensions). Likewise, Switzerland’s thrashing of Ecuador is what allowed them to the next round through the beauty of goal differential, but the Swiss team was unable to really find their offensive legs against either Japan or Cameroon.
GROUP D
The Group of Death turned out to essentially follow expectations: Sweden and Australia were difficult match ups in very different ways, and the USA won the group, despite significant questions remaining about their offensive performance. And Nigeria … was Nigeria: pacey, athletic, disorganized, a bit of a shambles, and full of very odd assertions from its leadership. I do still think Asisat Oshoala is the next big thing, but she’ll have to chalk this WC up to a learning experience.
Sweden was very hard to figure out: they looked miserably vulnerable against Nigeria, and then combative and solid in their last two games. They are always a threat to push an elimination game to PK’s, but their offense needs a lot more–especially from the much-heralded Lotta Schelin who, like Canada’s Sinclair, may be exposing the twilight of her career to public critique.
No such issues exist for Lisa De Vanna, who continues to carry much of Australia’s hopes on her shoulders (and, more, on the undimmed fleetness of her feet). Australia will shine in a wide open game, but they certainly can be tamed–especially by a smart, organized back line.
And that brings us to the USA, whose situation is largely unchanged: we’re still waiting for one of the forwards to take control (although Alex Morgan‘s start was promising and the complaints about Abby Wambach are, for me, really unwarranted: nobody, not Tim Cahill, not Peter Crouch, nobody, succeeds most of the time propelling their noggins towards spherical objects hurtling at odd angles and spins) and we’re still waiting for Jill Ellis to solve her midfield conundrums.
On the other side, the back four have been largely magnificent, with Meghan Klingenberg making an argument as their best player not named Rapinoe and the partnership between Julie Johnston and Becky Sauerbrunn becoming very, very effective.
GROUP E
The media would have loved to jump on either Spain or Costa Rica‘s bandwagon, but in the end a lack of either luck or finishing proficiency doomed the former and the pure talent gap proved too wide for the latter.
So, we’re left with Brazil who emerges largely untested and Korea, who run very hot and very cold: if they play like they did for most of the second half against Spain (and, oh! that header), they can cause some problems, but they were lackluster against Brazil and downright tepid against Costa Rica.
Luciana continues to look shaky in goal for Brazil, but Marta is still Marta and Andressa is turning into a significant contribute for this team, bridging their midfield quite impressively (she is usually the first midfielder back to help defensively, and her passing touch–see her assist on Raquel Fernandes‘ goal against Costa Rica–has been well evident.
GROUP F
The final day of Group F was anti-climactic, but still entertaining, as long as your heart didn’t belong to Mexico. There are two competing narratives on France: either they have regained their form and are back on track or we have no clue, because Mexico is that bad. While I am a big fan of this French team (or, perhaps more accurately, I am a big fan of the future of this French team), I fear that the latter holds more weight than the former.
Still, any team with Eugenie Le Sommer up top is dangerous, and their defense can be impressive, despite the play against Colombia. And, btw, for all the deep-lying midfielders who never get their moments in the sun, this from Amandine Henry may help.
England has done well to recognize how important Karen Carney is to their success, and I think the interplay between Carney and Fran Kirby is the real hope for them in future rounds; that and the continued strength of Steph Houghton in back.
It’s not kind to write off Colombia, but I will. I’ve enjoyed Lady Andrade as much as anyone, but this is a team that is progressing on a single result and, at the end of the day, a team that would probably lose to New Zealand.